Recognition of Palestine can be more than symbolic if Europe and Gulf states remain aligned

European countries like France are seeking a more assertive Middle East policy. Gulf countries have new unity after Israel’s strikes on Doha. Together they might yet progress Palestinian statehood.

Expert comment

Published 25 September 2025

Updated 26 September 2025 — 4 minute READ

Image — President Emmanuel Macron shakes hands with Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan at the United Nations (UN) General Assembly on 22 September. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Dr Neil Quilliam

Associate Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme

Advocates for the two-state solution could be forgiven for thinking that recognition of Palestine by France, the UK, Canada, Australia and others this week will just lead to yet another dead-end for Palestinian statehood. Israel will continue its war in Gaza. It will also likely build new settlements and expand existing ones in the West Bank, in essence annexing territory without formally doing so.

In that respect, it is easy for cynics from all sides of the spectrum to dismiss Western states’ recognition of Palestine as symbolic, a form of political theatre or (as charged by US President Donald Trump) an act that rewards Hamas for acts of terrorism against Israel. However, it would be a mistake to overlook the importance of the moment and the opportunity it presents for Arab and European states to build a new momentum towards Palestinian statehood.

Building international pressure

This month has seen a remarkable series of events that would have been unimaginable until very recently:

On 12 September 142 countries endorsed the New York Declaration – a French-Saudi led plan for a sovereign Palestinian state. On Sunday 21 September, Canada, Australia and the UK recognized Palestine.  

On Monday, France and Saudi Arabia co-hosted a summit at UN headquarters, one day before the opening of the General Assembly’s general debate. The summit, the Peaceful Settlement of the Question of Palestine and the Implementation of the Two-State Solution, was boycotted by Israel and the US. But it brought together over 140 world leaders and diplomats to galvanize support for Palestinian statehood.

French President Emmanuel Macron formally recognized the state of Palestine during his address, declaring that ‘the time for peace has come’ and urging an end to the war in Gaza, the release of hostages, and the establishment of a viable Palestinian state. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan repeated Macron’s call, urging all nations to follow suit.

On 24 September, France and the UK presented a European-led eight point ‘day after plan’  to the US administration and Arab allies, in which France has stated its willingness to contribute to an international stabilization mission.

These events represent an extraordinary shift among US allies on a previously immovable policy area. And several factors suggest that European and Gulf Cooperation Council countries could build on this moment to change the prospects of an independent Palestine.

The changing world worder

First, European leaders want to play a more prominent role in the Middle East. The world order is changing, and Europe is under increasing diplomatic, economic and military pressure, compelling it to define its place in the emerging order. At present, it remains at the margins of influencing major political outcomes and is still beholden to the US – as demonstrated by Trump’s dominant influence over the Russia–Ukraine war.

Israel’s 9 September strike in Qatar on has been a significant catalyst for change. 

Differences with Trump’s administration have helped some European leaders recognize the need to step up and become more assertive and influential – proving the continent’s enduring relevance to the world, and especially the Middle East. It is unsurprising that France, the EU’s only nuclear power and UN Security Council member, has taken the lead in working closely with Saudi Arabia on the New York Declaration.

Europe’s leaders are also driven by domestic pressures. Support for Israel appears to be declining sharply in Western Europe. Many citizens are shocked by the scale and direction of Israel’s response to Hamas’s horrific cross-border attacks of October 2023, with a growing outcry over the 65,000 Palestinians killed in Gaza. 

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Zizette Darkazally speaks at Chatham House’s event discussing Palestinian recognition

Indeed Israel seems to be losing in the broader Western court of public opinion. In earlier rounds of conflict, such as the first and second intifada (1987 and 2000), Israel always held the prevailing narrative.

This time the competition over the narrative is very different; not because the Palestinians are winning it, but because Israel is losing it. Far-right Israeli cabinet ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir have been banned from visiting Spain, Slovenia, Belgium, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway and the UK for inciting violence against Palestinians. 

Israel’s spokespeople, known for their eloquence and persuasive public performances, are struggling to control the public debate, following South Africa’s bringing of a genocide case at the International Court of Justice, and the International Criminal Court arrest warrant for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Even a few significant supporters of Israel in the US are openly criticising Israel’s conduct of the Gaza war, including Kamala Harris and advocacy group J Street.

Second, Israel’s 9 September strike in Qatar on has been a significant catalyst for change. The attack on the Hamas negotiating team, which killed six including a Qatari security official, has given rise to a moment of unity amongst the GCC states.

The GCC’s renewed unity of purpose – and the priority that Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE have placed on…establishing a Palestinian state – aligns with European ambitions.

The visit of UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed and his high-level delegation to Doha on 10 September gave a clear signal that Abu Dhabi considers Gulf security to be paramount. 

Furthermore, the UAE has made clear that any annexation of the West Bank would be a red line that will place the Abraham Accords in jeopardy. The GCC’s renewed unity of purpose – and the priority that Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE have placed on ending the conflict in Gaza and establishing a Palestinian state – aligns with European ambitions.

The final factor is President Trump himself. For the time being, the US president has offered Israel his unequivocal support. It is unlikely that he would flip in favour of recognizing a Palestinian state. 

But he is unpredictable, and the prospect of winning a Nobel peace prize, and securing even bigger economic and trade deals from Gulf Arab states might be enough to persuade him to at least drop his vociferous opposition to Palestinian statehood.

If the Europeans can persuade him that their plan has a chance of success – and that he could take the credit – that might be enough to win his backing. It will not be easy: the president was openly critical of Europe and its leaders only this week in his UN general assembly speech; and the president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair are reportedly developing a rival plan for peace.

The support of Gulf states could be pivotal: they have been repeatedly disappointed with US security guarantees, especially following the Israeli air strike in Doha. President Trump’s relationship with them is solely transactional. Now they must follow the same playbook and begin to attach conditions to any further major deals, with the aim of progressing the aims and objectives of the New York Declaration.  

If Europe and the GCC can cooperate, and pull the levers of influence within their grasp, it may just be enough to move the diplomatic process closer towards Palestinian statehood. But it will take courage, conviction and real leadership to make it happen.