Global Trade 2020

Patterns of global trade are changing in a number of significant ways. More immediately, COVID-19 has disrupted global supply patterns, creating demand and supply shocks across the world. But the crisis has also served to catalyse and interplay with other key trends in global trade, such as the increasing localisation of global supply chains in the context of a protectionist and de-globalised world.

• In what different ways has COVID-19 disrupted global trade?

• What are the potential long term implications of COVID-19 for the current system of global trade?

• How has the COVID-19 crisis interplayed with other key developments in global trade, such as the localisation of supply chains and a broader retreat from globalisation?

The last few years have seen trade become an increasingly important arena for geopolitics. The rules-based international trade system has come under increasing strain as the world’s two largest economies engaged in a protracted trade war, as part of a wider international turn towards protectionist economic policies. But with the upcoming US election, the impact of COVID-19 on international trade relations, and Brexit, what does the future hold for global trade?

• What are the underlying drivers of the US–China trade tensions? Have they been sufficiently addressed by the ‘phase one’ deal?

• What are the implications of US-China tensions on other trading powers, such as the EU and Britain?

• What might the impact be of the US 2020 elections on global trade relations?

• How will Brexit impact Britain’s role in global trade relations?

Technological developments are already redefining trade, though the long-term effects are yet to be known. On the one hand, technology creates new opportunities for global trade, particularly for service-based and digital trade, while also making processes more inclusive and efficient. On the other, technology also has the potential to serve as a disruptive force, posing challenges for international governance and becoming a new arena for geopolitical competition.

• What are the different key technological developments impacting global trade?

• What potential do these technologies have for both creating new opportunities and optimising systems?

• What challenges does technology pose for the current system of global trade?

• What are implications of the increased territorialisation and politicisation of technology for global trade?

International trade has a crucial role to play in addressing climate breakdown. The current global trading system is a key contributor to climate change. Meanwhile, Covid-19 has highlighted the vulnerability of global supply chains to the environment, leading to the need for a radical rethink to build more resilient systems. As the effects of climate breakdown are increasingly felt, 2020 is a critical year for the global community to better align on global trade and environmental objectives, policy-making and governance.

• In what different ways is climate change impacting global trade? How are these issues likely to be exacerbated as the climate crisis escalates?

• How can different models of global trade governance positively or negatively affect the environment? How can trade serve as an effective vehicle of environmental policy?

• What steps can the international community take to better align global trade and environmental governance in the 2020s?

To secure its relevance and future effectiveness, the WTO will need to undergo significant reform to address the varied economic, social and environmental challenges of the 21st century. This session will reflect on the discussions of the previous sessions to explore how the international community can work together to build a sustainable, inclusive and effective system(s) for global trade governance.

• What different obstacles and challenges is the current system of international trade governance facing?

• What could a WTO 2.0 look like? How could it address the different economic, social and environmental challenges of the 21st century?

• Is WTO reform possible in today’s geopolitical climate?

• Is the path to global trade reform to be found (at least partially) outside the WTO?