Last December, the first batch of Borsuk amphibious infantry fighting vehicles was delivered to Poland’s 15th Mechanised Brigade. The roll-out of this NATO-standard, Polish-designed combat vehicle, known as the Badger, is a milestone in the country’s rapid military modernization.
It is powered by a German engine but sadly the Badger is not emblematic of a wider collaboration between Poland and Germany, two of the most important military powers in the European Union. Amid a growing threat from Russia and an American president who sees allies and NATO commitments as expendable, an alliance between Germany and Poland is seen as critical for the security of Europe.
Poland plans to spend 4.8 per cent of its GDP this year on defence while Germany’s defence budget is the fourth largest in the world after the United States, China and Russia.Yet this partnership is not reaching its full potential and, with NATO on the back foot, the pressure for Warsaw and Berlin to move a lot closer together is greater than ever. Can they?
Political pressures
Due to past grievances, domestic political tensions and mutual mistrust, Germans and Poles often talk past each other, said Tobias Bunde, a professor of international security at the Hertie School in Berlin. ‘The Poles can be hyper-sensitive but the Germans are tone deaf.’ The German government needs to invest more in the relationship, Bunde argued, as both countries share a security problem that dwarfs their recent disputes.
Poland and Germany currently agree about the Russian threat, the unreliability of the transatlantic alliance and the need to keep America onside while building up Europe’s strategic autonomy. ‘Poland and Germany need each other and their aims are more aligned than at any other time for decades,’ said Wojciech Przybylski, of the Visegrad Insight think tank.
When Friedrich Merz of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) became chancellor last year he tried to recalibrate the relationship. He ditched borrowing constraints to shore up his country’s defences, which was welcomed in Poland. His first foreign trip included Warsaw. Merz has invited Poland into multilateral security and economic circles and there was hope of a reset, particularly since Prime Minister Donald Tusk leads a liberal pro-European coalition.
Yet, despite better recent polling for Tusk, Poland’s far-right Law and Justice (PiS) opposition party is likely to remain a threat in next year’s parliamentary election. If Tusk loses, experts say the detente with Germany could be threatened. Tusk has been mired in domestic infighting since the victory of right-wing nationalist Karol Nawrocki in last year’s presidential election. President Nawrocki has been endorsed by Trump and is suspicious of German power.
With his coalition looking weak, Tusk must walk a political tightrope over the next 18 months. The PiS is pushing an anti-German narrative as a way to win votes. Ben Stanley, an associate professor of social sciences at the SWPS University in Warsaw, said it’s as if campaigning has already begun. ‘Tusk is sensitive to the fact that the opposition unfairly accuse him of being unduly pro-German,’ which is why he is so cautious about engagement with Berlin. One German analyst has described Poland’s policy towards Germany as like driving with the brakes on.
Poland has a dynamic economy and the third largest army in NATO, so the government does not want to be seen following Germany’s lead, Stanley explained. ‘Tusk wants to get away from the idea that Poland is a junior partner in this relationship,’ he said.
In Berlin, a change of the old guard among officials and diplomats, who tend to look westward rather than east and dismiss
Poland as a second tier post-communist state, would also help, according to Marion Messmer, director of the International Security Programme at Chatham House. ‘There are reasons why the Poles feel undervalued and sidelined,’ she said. A new generation is more likely to see the strides Poland has made, recognize its new confidence and be ready to build bridges.
Disillusion set in last May when Merz abruptly closed Germany’s borders to asylum seekers under pressure from the far-right Alternative for Germany, which is catching up with the CDU in the polls. This allowed PiS to stir up anti-German sentiment and forced Poland to introduce checks of its own.
‘The over-politicization of the relationship has made it difficult to reboot the partnership without a meaningful concession from Germany,’ Stanley said. Both leaders met in Berlin last December and there was hope the German government would offer Tusk something to strengthen his position at home. But there was no progress on the long-standing issue of atonement for the Second World War, which the Germans see as legally settled. Negotiations about German investment in Poland’s defence sector, an idea suggested as a possible alternative to reparations, gained no traction.
Even within Merz’s CDU there was impatience with his leadership. By denying money to the survivors of Nazi persecution, officials showed a lack of understanding of the politics of memory in Poland, said CDU MP Roderich Kiesewetter: ‘Germany lost an opportunity to rebuild trust and credibility.’ Whatever can be done to strengthen Polish defence benefits Germany, said Kiesewetter, a former Bundeswehr officer, who finds his country’s lack of urgency inexplicable. ‘German politics is characterized by strategic reluctance, but you can call it strategic blindness,’ he added.
Policymakers in Berlin would like a closer relationship with Poland but it is not a priority, said Piotr Buras, of the European Council on Foreign Relations. Perhaps more pressing for Merz is the fact that the AfD, which has some senior figures who support Russia and dislike Poland, is challenging CDU candidates in regional elections this year.
Military diplomacy
Could military diplomacy be the way forward? Both sides are drafting a new bilateral defence policy agreement to be signed in June. It is being negotiated by the two ministries of defence. If it had been intergovernmental, added Buras, President Nawrocki might have tried to veto it.
The agreement is expected to contain more support for the Baltic states, discussion of supply lines and a plea for Germany’s dilapidated bridges to be ready for tanks and allied troops moving to the eastern flank. It is hoped that more joint military projects will show each side that they cannot just rely on NATO, but must also look to their bilateral friendship.
Analysts say they would like more defence industry cooperation and development, but both countries are prioritizing resupplying their national arsenals depleted by support for Ukraine. Poland has a small defence industry so is buying off the shelf from South Korea and the US while Germany is encouraging its own arms-makers to scale up.
Meeting in larger security formats alongside the Baltic and Nordic States or France, all close to Poland, could make the situation less charged, said Monika Sus, professor of political science at the Polish Academy of Sciences. More dispassionate observers and mediators ‘could ease frictions and make negotiations less loaded’, she added.
Fading memories
While the nationalists’ negative views of Germany still dominate much of the Polish media, Stanley believes anti-German sentiment will wane as memories of wartime fade. Trade with Germany is important, and economic integration will be driven by a younger generation for whom historical arguments are less important.
At the same time, growing mistrust of America might push Poland more towards Europe. A recent survey showed that more than half of Poles no longer regard the US as a reliable ally. Messmer hopes Poland will not make the mistake of relying solely on Trump for support against Russia. ‘If they are tempted to rely on the US more than Germany they will be making a grave error,’ she warned.