Global trade 2025

Which geopolitical risks will have the greatest impact on global trade in 2025 and how might these contribute to the fragmentation of global trade architecture? How are multinational organizations like the World Trade Organization (WTO) failing to meet the needs of modern trade landscapes? Where are the key areas of reform within multinational organizations and how can changes to their structure and purpose produce tangible benefit in the long run?

What impact will the rise of economic security policies have on open and rules-based international trading systems? In what ways can global businesses build resilience in this environment dominated by security concerns?

Speakers
Simon Manley CMG, Ambassador and Permanent Representative, UK Mission to the UN & WTO
Tatiana Prazeres, Secretary of Foreign Trade, Ministry of Industry, Foreign Trade and Services, Brazil (joining virtually)
Keith Rockwell, Senior Research Fellow, Hinrich Foundation
Jeongmin Seong, Parnter, McKinsey Global Institute
Chair: Rem Korteweg, Senior Research Fellow, Head of Strategic Initiatives & Outreach, Clingendael Institute

Exclusive to in person participants and held under the Chatham House Rule.

How has the trade war over electric vehicle (EV) production between major economies been expressed across the world and what further disruption can be expected in this domain? Is the imposition of tariffs on EVs the most effective mechanism to bring divergent parties to the negotiating table? Is that even the aim? Does this leave the global automotive industry in a precarious position?

Does a system of competing subsidies and tariffs amount to a failure of consumer protection policies? How does the battle over EVs set the table for future trade conflicts in the environmental and critical materials space?

Speakers
Christopher Lock, Partner, Sidley Austin LLP
Martin Lukas, Director, Trade Defence, DG-Trade, European Commission
Julia Poliscanova, Senior Director, Vehicles & Emobility Supply Chains, Transport & Environment
Chair: Graham Lanktree, Reporter, Politico

How does the Government plan to reset trade relations with Europe? What initiatives are in place to ensure that the Government can capture the benefits of technology and innovation to foster competitiveness, growth and resilience? What role does trade play in the UK Government’s approach to foreign and development policy?

Speakers
The Rt Hon Jonathan Reynolds MP, Secretary of State, Department of Business and Trade
Chair: Creon Butler, Director, Global Economy and Finance Programme, Chatham House

Is economic security now the guiding theme for the UK’s trade strategy? Does a Labour Government promise a reset in relations between the UK and Europe and specifically how might relations with the EU alter? How compatible is this drive with Donald Trump ascending once again to the US presidency? How is the UK looking to develop relations formed in Asia, through CPTPP, as a means of securing supply chains?

Will the government’s strategy keep up with the fast-paced and ever-changing nature of digital trade? What does the optimum public/private partnership model to foster growth look like in practice?

Speakers
Creon Butler, Director, Global Economy and Finance Programme, Chatham House
Michael Gasiorek, Co-Director, UK Trade Policy Observatory
Anna Nightingale, Vice-President, Head of Research and Development, EMEA-LatAm, Haleon
Madelaine Tuininga, Minister-Counsellor, Trade Affairs, Delegation of the European Union to the United Kingdom
Chair: Lizzy Burden, UK Correspondent, Bloomberg News

What does the annual growth rate of 10 per cent in the trade of critical minerals tell us about their importance to the global economy and which sectors are they most crucial to? Where are the implicit connections between attempts to increase the resiliency of critical materials supply chains with the drive towards ‘de-risking’ from China? How are these materials influencing the growth of new resource superpowers and what are the implications for political stability and security?

Can international organizations take the lead in creating unified standards on critical material extraction and what is the role of strategic partnerships in achieving resilience in this space? What is the role of the private sector in bolstering critical material resilience?

Speakers
Matthew Chamberlain, CEO, London Metal Exchange
Vanessa Erogbogbo, Chief, Green and Inclusive Value Chains, International Trade Centre
Benjamin Katz, Sector Lead, Mineral Supply Chains, OECD
Ines Nastali, Senior Supply Chain Analyst, S&P Global Market Intelligence
Chair: Carolyn Deere Birkbeck, Founder and Executive Director, Forum on Trade, Environment and the SDGs, Geneva Graduate Institute

In what ways has the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership enabled countries in the Asia-Pacific region to unlock the digital tools of trade? How might consensus on the power of e-commerce in major Asian economies be used to de-escalate tensions in this fraught geopolitical environment? How are Middle Eastern economies utilizing the windfall from the trade in commodities like oil and gas, to fuel growth in the digital sector?

How does the threat of conflict in the Middle East intersect with the desire for economic growth in many advanced regional economies? Does this bolster the positions of nations like Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE in attempts at peace negotiations? How has a focus on digital trade enabled a thriving SME (small to medium enterprise) infrastructure to develop across the Asian continent?

Speakers
Seema Farazi, Partner, EY
Yu Jie, Senior Research Fellow on China, Asia-Pacific Programme, Chatham House
Farisa Zarin, Global Head, Group Public and Regulatory Affairs, Standard Chartered
Takashi Mogi, Special Advisor to the Minister, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, JETRO
Chair: David Lubin, Senior Research Fellow, Global Economy and Finance Programme, Chatham House

Exclusive to in person participants and held under the Chatham House Rule.

In what ways can escalating tensions around trade be put down to a failure of globalization in equitably spreading the wealth generated by growth since the end of the Cold War? How effective a tool are tariffs in an interconnected, digital global economy? Which sectors will be most vulnerable to the effects of trade wars and how might this influence policy decisions in countries that are reliant on these sectors?

Does a trade war between the US and China drag other major economies into conflict or is this an opportunity for the likes of India, ASEAN states and the EU to assert greater independence? What should policymakers and business leaders do to ensure resilience in this landscape over the next five years?

Speakers
Simon Lacey, Director, Digital Trade and Geopolitics, World Economic Forum
Chair: Linda Yueh, Associate Fellow, US & Americas Programme, Chatham House