The Hungarian election and its significance for Europe

Professor Timothy Garton Ash

Welcome, everybody, to this event. I’m Timothy Garton Ash, your moderator today. I’m delighted to mention Péter Márki-Zay, the United Hungarian Opposition candidate for Prime Minister in the election that takes place on the 3rd of April. Of course, there are many other things in Europe that are very much on our minds, but this is an important European event, because the opposition has the chance of replacing Viktor Orbán as Prime Minister. Viktor Orbán is, of course, a leader who has gone furthest in eroding liberal democracy inside a full member state of the European Union. He is one of the leaders of what is self-described as an “anti-liberal vision of Europe,” and significantly impacts EU policy towards China and Russia, amongst others. So, it’s an important European event.

A few housekeeping comments, before we start. This is entirely on the record. If you would like to tweet, that #CHEvents, CHE’s Events, is available. If you’re listening online, please put your question or desire to ask a question in the Q&A on the Zoom, chat and raise hand are disabled, and I will bring you in, in the discussion.

Let me, first of all, introduce our guest, Mr Mayor Péter Márki-Zay. Péter Márki-Zay is a native of the easily pronouncible South Hungarian town of Hódmezővásárhely. He studied engineering, marketing, economics and economic history in Budapest and Szeged, worked in various commercial and marketing roles in Hungary, then importantly, in Canada and the US, then came back to Hungary, and in 2018, was elected as the United Opposition candidate in Hódmezővásárhely. An independent candidate, but with the support of opposition parties, deposing a Fidesz Mayor. The town had had a Fidesz Mayor since 1990, I think I’m correct in saying, continuously, and interestingly, fighting the campaign specifically on the anti-corruption issue, which is relevant to the general election now. Last year he became the candidate of a United Opposition, six extremely diverse, it has to be said, parties, to none of which he belongs. He has his own Everyone’s Hungary Movement, MMM, and he is leading the campaign into the 3rd of April.

So, Péter Márki-Zay, if I may start with a first question to you about yourself. When we met in Budapest last October, you had a great line, which was, “I am everything that Viktor Orbán pretends to be.” Just explain that line to us.

Péter Márki-Zay

Thank you very much. Thank you, Professor, and let me welcome everybody here. It’s a great honour to be here and to be your guest in Chatham House. Of course, Professor is well versed in Hungarian history and it’s another foreign Hungarian, I guess, to talk to him.

“Everything that Orbán pretends to be,” meaning that Orbán declares himself a “right-wing Christian Conservative,” but Orbán is not. Orbán pretends to be that, but Orbán started his political career in the Communist Youth Movement in the 80s, then late 80s, he turned into a radical Liberal, then, you know, later, in the 90s, he changed course and he became a Conservative. And I did follow him, by the way. I was an enthusiastic follower of Orbán and Fidesz at the time, but they turned from Liberal to Conservative, and I still voted for Fidesz in 2010, when Orbán won its two thirds majority, which allowed him to turn Hungary into a – from a liberal democratic state, into a one-party state. But Orbán also abandoned those values that I follow, that I respect.

Orbán, when I supported him, was a harshly anti-Putin, pro-European Conservative. Now, he’s – after one day, by the way, November 25th 2009, when he met with Putin, he turned around and it was a total U-turn, he became harshly anti-EU, pro-Putin, and not a Conservative anymore. Hate campaigns, corruption, you know, it’s more of a dictatorship, a one-party state. If it’s fascist or Communist, you can tell, but it’s typical – you know, the propaganda they use, hatred, smear campaigns and large-scale corruption, which is – there’s nothing Christian about corruption. So, I don’t think he is either a Christian or a Conservative or right-wing anymore. He’s a populist dictator and he will always find ways to make himself, his family and friends, richer. So, corruption is his basic and only ideology.

Professor Timothy Garton Ash

So, you’re in the middle of this election campaign. The opposition got together behind your candidacy relatively late. The OSCE Election Monitoring Report in 2018 found that, basically, there had not been a level playing field in the election. They pointed out, particularly, the degree of government control of media, formally or informally, and the use of the resources of the state, of the state administration, including state advertising, in the election campaign. So, tell us a bit about what it’s like to fight an election campaign in such a context.

Péter Márki-Zay

Well, when I mentioned the one-party state, Hungary today, after 2010, due to Orbán’s policies and changes, he used his two thirds majority for one cycle to totally change rules in Hungary. He changed a constitution, of course. It has only been approved by one single party, his Fidesz. Electoral law only approved by one single party, Fidesz. There is a Media Council controlling and limiting media freedom, of course, taking away frequency licence from the last opposition radio station last February. This Media Council consists of five members, only Fidesz members, no opposition or independent members at all, and they appointed Fidesz loyalists to every single position. There are several positions hold by Fidesz loyalists for nine and ten – 12 years. So, just imagine this, he appoints people to control very important roles, you know, the Public Prosecutor, for example, for nine years, Head of Media Council, nine years, Constitutional Court members, 12 years. He reached the majority in the Constitutional Court, but by almost doubling the headcount of the court, just as much – that – just as many as he needed for a comfortable majority.

So, he controls everything by now and it’s not just judiciary, of course. Even Judges are politically nominated and controlled, etc., not just media. State media, by the way, did not report on a primary election process, which the entire opposition participated, and 850,000 Hungarian electors participated in this event. It was the first time in Hungary – in Hungarian history, a pri – an election primary and – a primary election, sorry. 850,000 people, which I would say, probably, it’s about a few 1,000, down 15% of the voting age population. So, it’s a huge show. It was a fantastic event. State media didn’t report on it at all, zero. I was elected with hun – 371,000 votes, which is, I believe, only second in Hungary’s history. Only with Budapest Mayor had, once, a higher number of direct votes, and I have not been invited to state television once, ever since, not once. But even in a normal cycle, like 2014 to 18, for example, four-year cycle, an opposition party, not one candidate, one entire party, got five minutes airtime on state television, five minutes in four years, that’s all. So, this is about state media.

Of course, advertising services, we had a very hard time and we used all of our resources, connections and everything, to get about 1,000 advertising surfaces, billboard advertising. Fidesz uses 15,000, but they own ten times as much, close to 90% of all surfaces in the country. So, it’s not just media, it’s also companies’ money, resources. Fidesz is outspending the opposition ten to one on social media. YouTube, you cannot watch a YouTube video without being interrupted every three minutes with a smear campaign or propaganda material, you know, portraying me as the puppet of Gyurcsány, the pre-2010 very unpopular Socialist Prime Minister.

So, it’s – you can imagine, they alleged that I would, or we would, the opposition would make healthcare payable, bring in migrants, take back to 13 months’ pension, increase utility prices, without any control, and people tend to believe that, of course. If it had not been me, a Conservative candidate, who’s a surprise even to Fidesz, won the primary election, then they will write – continue their anti-migrant and anti-gay propaganda. Now that I’m the candidate, they are mostly attacking us on social issues, like increasing utility bills, you know, taking back social things, making healthcare payable. So, these are more credible now, but equally scaring for people.

So, really, Hungary is not a democracy, and you remember last elections’ evaluation from OSCE, but also other organisations, that it was “a free election, but not fair”?

Professor Timothy Garton Ash

Yeah.

Péter Márki-Zay

And I would insist that it’s not even free. Even in 2018, even Fidesz’s own, very loyal, Public Prosecutor, conducted 300 frauds – election fraud violations, prosecutions, and the 300 cases, the Judge declared that there was an electoral fraud.

Professor Timothy Garton Ash

So, in that situation, you really need a United Opposition on the ground campaign, but you don’t have a terrifically United Opposition, to be honest. You have five very different parties, ranging from the Hungarian Socialists, to – the Socialists, to the Jobbik, and from what one gathers, there has been rather a lot of infighting in the campaign. So, do you really have a United Opposition?

Péter Márki-Zay

Yes and no. I believe that we can be working together. It’s a good thing, that it’s possible now. I was the first candidate in our history who was supported by both Jobbik and the Socialist, as an independent candidate. I was a former Fidesz supporter, an independent, and both the right-wing opposition, the Nationalists extr – right-wing, national, radical Jobbik and, also, all the left-wing parties, the Greens, Liberals and Socialists supported me. That was a historic event four years ago, when I was re-elected in Hódmezővásárhely, a Fidesz stronghold. And ever since, I have been working on uniting the opposition, because that’s the only way in this system to defeat Fidesz, and even with this unification, it would still require a miracle. But I did experience that miracle, not only in my own town, but also during the primaries, where nobody expected that I could win, not even me, of course.

So, hopefully, we will have a third miracle, or a fourth miracle, in [inaudible – 18:21], but definitely with this opposition, it’s not going to be easy and they are more or less motivated to win, but they invest in our victory at a different level. And we need to – a large part of our effort is to bring everybody on the same page and bring every – and rally all these people, activists, etc., so that they would not see each other as enemies, they would not see me as an outsider, as an enemy, and they would stand behind us, united.

Professor Timothy Garton Ash

So, the miracle has happened, third, fourth miracle has happened. It’s 4th of April, and just before your 50th birthday, you’re Hungarian Prime Minister. What are your first steps?

Péter Márki-Zay

The very first I can promise is to join the European Public Prosecutor’s Office. Yes, we are running on an anti-corruption ticket, if you want, because there’s not a whole – well, actually, there’s more than people would think, but there’s a limit to the number of issues that we all agree on. But anti-corruption is one of those things. Pro-European stance in foreign policy is one of those things, so there are things. And it’s a simple gesture that we will join the European Public Prosecutor’s Office, which will definitely go after corruption left and right, government, opposition, etc. So, this is a symbolic gesture.

Also, another symbolic gesture would be to make all Communist agent files public, which for – interestingly, and not – well, of course, known reasons, for 30 years, it has not been done. So, we all agreed on that one, as well. We will set up an anti-corruption agency, it’s also important, and we will also start a procedure to join the Eurozone. It will take, according to our estimate and promise, too, it will take at least five years. So, it’s a lengthy process.

We want to do it right, etc., and we will start fighting COVID, start fighting, not only corruption, but also inflation. Inflation is very high in Hungary. COVID deaths are the highest last year, in 2021. The highest number of COVID deaths in Europe and in the world, actually, was in Hungary, in the entire world, and this is because Orbán didn’t care about the lives he should save. He purchased and used Sinopharma vaccines, Chinese vaccines, on 400,000 elderly Hungarians, over 60. Nobody else in the whole world used Sinopharma vaccines on people over 60, because it’s not suitable. Chinese didn’t even test it. So, why did they do it? Because Hungary paid twice the price for the vaccine than Senegal did. Senegal is an averagely corrupt African country. Also, Orbán and his company purchased respirators from Slovenia for €1 billion. The price was about 40% higher – 50% higher than what the Slovenian Government paid for the same unit, same make and model, for the same company. So, everything that they do is about corruption and they didn’t care, and you know, Austrians, and Orbán declared that, “Austria is our laboratory for COVID treatment and how they manage the COVID crisis.” Now, Austrians provided free tests for the population. Orbán provided free public parking. Tests were payable, very expensive, by the way, and last November, they had to destroy five billion in 14 – five billion spares of tests, because they expired.

So, it’s just the stupidity is – and they don’t care. That’s the message. You know, it’s as long as they can steal, they don’t care about the deaths, inflation, and economic problems, social issues. And there’s a huge shortage of Doctors, Nurses, Teachers and Policemen, huge shortage. They have to shut down hospital departments or schools in lack of Teachers and Doctors, etc., because they don’t pay them enough.

Professor Timothy Garton Ash

If I may, you said in an interview with the EURACTIV that the – an election victory of the opposition in the Hungary would be “the grand prize for the EU.” Explain to us why this is a grand prize. I mean, these are important measures for Hungary, but what’s the significance for the EU?

Péter Márki-Zay

Well, first of all, for the EU, and I might not have said it myself, I do not sure, but anyway – because I really view things from Hungarian perspective, not from the EU’s perspective. But I do understand that it’s important for the EU, for all European citizens and many citizens outside the EU, hopefully also in Great Britain. There’s a global phenomena of this populist dictators, if you wish, corrupt populist dictators, and it’s a burden, not only on Hungary, but on the EU, definitely, that such thing can happen inside the EU. Hungary will probably not meet the acceptance criteria right now, based on its corruption and rule of low performance, media freedom, by the way. I believe these principles are so important that Orbán is a threat, not only to the EU, but also democracies workwide – worldwide. You know, just because of this – yeah, and of course, Poland is regularly named not nearly as well as Orbán and Hungary, but you remember Trump, as well? It was an issue for many – you know, so the – his stance on certain issues, you know, the populists and, also, hate campaigns and hate speech, I believe, and then, this can be made government policy. It’s a threat to democracy everywhere.

Professor Timothy Garton Ash

Let me ask you a, I think, a difficult and sensitive issue, which is, obviously, you’re – we can hear you’re deeply concerned to withdraw the Rule of Law and European Standards, but there are all these illiberal checks and balances that are built into the system by Fidesz over the last 11 years, using its super majority. So, just tell us briefly how you address that problem.

Péter Márki-Zay

It’s a very difficult question. I would say that checks and balances are built in the liberal system. The problem is that Orbán has switched off all of these checks and balances that we used to have in our constitution. Apparently, we didn’t have enough checks and balances in the constitution if be the single victory of two thirds, or one could switch them off one by one: media freedom, Constitutional Court, new constitution, anything that – independence of the judiciary, and anti-corruption. So, all these, they’re all switched off. Trump may not have very different views on the world than Orbán, but the US is a very stable democracy, and you could see that their checks and balances did work. I remember that saying, I heard it on public radio in the States, by the way, that “The Brits call the American system “a system which was planned, or intentionally planned, not to function, not to work.”” So that a change is almost impossible in the US system, because you would have – you know, including filibustering, if there is so many checks and balances.” Well, unfortunately, Hungary didn’t have those safeguards and Orbán could, you know, change the entire situation, and that is a problem.

So, our primary objective – my primary objective, as a Conservative working with Liberals, Greens, Socialists, is that for – if we win and, hopefully, when we win, you know, the next four years, or even less, should be dedicated to restore media freedom, democracy, Rule of Law, etc., and build in sufficient number of checks and balances into a new constitution, hopefully approved by a referendum. Because we don’t necessarily expect a two thirds victory for ourselves.

So, we believe that the referendum should be needed in order to approve a new constitution. My preference would be a minimalist constitution, which only consists of all these checks and balances, limits to the power of a government. My leftist friends, they all, you know, want to put in the people’s basic human rights, right for habitat, social rights, etc., everything in the constitution. I don’t – these should be very basic laws, but not necessarily add to that.

Professor Timothy Garton Ash

Ah, a new constitution…

Péter Márki-Zay

A new constitution.

Professor Timothy Garton Ash

…put to the…

Péter Márki-Zay

That is the solution.

Professor Timothy Garton Ash

…population in a referendum, that’s very clear. And let’s come to European policy and wider questions for the last few minutes, before we open it up to the audience. Obviously, we’re all thinking about Ukraine at the moment…

Péter Márki-Zay

Yeah.

Professor Timothy Garton Ash

…and the Russian threat to it, 100,000 plus Russian troops massed on its frontiers. What do you think we should do about Ukraine?

Péter Márki-Zay

Well, I’m very much supporting those initiatives which will bring Europe – Ukraine closer to Europe, even to NATO, by the way. So, I believe the – we are responsible for a partner for European values and democracy in Ukraine and we should help them protect themselves. They also have, you know, every right to their own independence. So, I’m very much supporting European and NATO objectives to defend Ukraine and I believe most of the Hungarians are, not only pro-European, but also pro-NATO, for example. And many of us see, with disdain, how Orbán is serving Putin’s interests and not Hungarian interests, by the way.

Professor Timothy Garton Ash

And what if Mr Putin turns off the gas?

Péter Márki-Zay

Well…

Professor Timothy Garton Ash

And your energy dependency on Russia is still considerable, Hungary’s…

Péter Márki-Zay

That’s right…

Professor Timothy Garton Ash

…energy dependency.

Péter Márki-Zay

That’s right. Well, of course, we all read the news, so United States, Qatar, they all can help it and liquid natural gas. But okay, I don’t think Russ – well, Russian might – may or may not do that, for sure. We have a long-term gas contract with Russia. Orbán does have a good relationship with Putin, so I’m not sure if this will happen with Hungary, specifically, but this might happen with a number of countries, technically. But in the long run, it’s not in the interests of Putin. Putin wants to maintain business relationship. By cutting the gas supply, he would create an ind – an energy independence for Europe, which, on the long run, would harm Russia and not Europe. So, I believe this will not happen, but it’s okay. It’s my private view on the matter and anything can happen, regardless. But once you mentioned shutting down the gas supply. Orbán did follow Putin’s wishes, when five/six years ago, he did cut gas supply to Ukraine, from Hungary. So, you can also easily, you know, not only imagine, but suppose that Orbán will do that again.

Professor Timothy Garton Ash

You mentioned Ukraine’s right to self-defence. As you know, there’s a great argument going on now inside NATO, over Europe, over weapons supplies to Ukraine and Germany prohibited Estonia from exporting Former East German weapons to Ukraine. What I hear from you is that you would favour sending defensive weapons to Ukraine. As it happens, Hungary is the largest single customer for German arms exports last year. It’s very striking. So, what if you wanted to export a few German made defensive weapons to Ukraine?

Péter Márki-Zay

I doubt that Orbán is planning to do that.

Professor Timothy Garton Ash

Yeah, but my question is to you, Mr potential Prime Minister.

Péter Márki-Zay

I wouldn’t mind at all, but it’s – you know, of course, again, you know, we appreciate peace everywhere in the world. Somehow, my impression is that if there is a balance of powers, then peace is secured. If there’s no balance of power, then war may break out. So, I believe just to safeguard peace, sometimes you have to show strength to defend yourself, to stand up for your partners, so I absolutely support Britain’s more determined moves on the defence of Ukraine.

Professor Timothy Garton Ash

Interesting, I’m sure there may be questions on that. Last question from me, before we throw it open. Viktor Orbán has not only got a good relationship with Putin. He’s also got a good relationship with China and has, indeed, praised China as an example of a liberal modernity and has some fairly major contracts with China in Hungary. How would you see Hungary’s China policy changing under your premiership?

Péter Márki-Zay

Ah, on Putin, let me state that I do appreciate Russian culture a lot, myself. I’m also a fan of Russian culture, literature especially, but music as well. The Russian nation is a great nation. The economy is, of course, not only because of natural gas, but something that we need to keep a good relationship with, but on a mutually beneficial basis. And this is exactly my view on our relationship with the Communist Chinese Government, that China is a great nation. The whole – the entire world is dependent on Chinese technology, not only Chinese cheap labour. Now, most of our phones are also made with hi-tech. I’m sure your laptop is also made in China, so even technology, and not just various materials and not other resources. So, relationship with China is a natural, not just necessity, but it’s beneficial for all nations in the world, but it has to be beneficious for both parties.

What I criticise about Orbán’s relationship with China is that this relationship is only beneficial to China, not for us. So, Orbán ousted the highest quality Central European university, called Central European University, from Hungary. Now, it’s headquartered in Vienna, because it was Soros University. It was entirely free for the Hungarian society. Many Fidesz – many members of the Fidesz elite attended this university, got their diploma from Soros University, and now he’s attacking Soros, of course. He, himself, was also a Soros, not graduate, I guess, because he…

Professor Timothy Garton Ash

Scholar, art – student…

Péter Márki-Zay

Yeah, scholar.

Professor Timothy Garton Ash

…in arts, right?

Péter Márki-Zay

Yeah, let’s call him that. But anyway, it didn’t cost Hungarian taxpayers a penny. Now, Orbán invited Fudan University, it’s a Chinese Communist university, of course, to come to Hungary and Orbán promised them close to £2 billion, or £1.5 billion subsidiary, which is a higher amount than Hungary is giving to all Hungarian universities combined. How does it make sense? You oust a very good university, which did not cost you, but then you invite a Chinese Communist university to Budapest and subsidise it with higher amount than your own universities combined. So, I just don’t see the point. I can only assume that there’s a huge corruption case, again, behind it.

I’m also 100% sure that this is happening when we are building a Chinese fast railway link between Belgrade and Budapest. And the logical route for this railway would be through Szeged and Kecskemét, two population centres in the Great Hungarian Plains, very close to my city, as well, you know, where 200 and 100,000 Hungarians are living, but not – our government selected the route, which is probably shorter, maybe by 20km or 30, but there are no big cities on that route. Makes no sense at all. If you build a fast railway link, you want to use it for passenger traffic, as well, not just, you know, transporting Chinese goods, and Orbán made it a state secret for ten years. But the Serbians did not, so we learned it from Serbian papers, from Serbian documents, that when negotiating with the Chinese, Orbán suggested a different route. And okay, I’m 100% sure it was the same route as everybody else would have suggested, but the Chinese refused.

Again, this is a railway project that will be built from Hungarian taxpayers’ money. Yes, the Chinese do provide a loan for the construction, but it’s our money, it’s our territory, it’s our railway. We cannot even influence the route. We cannot even represent our own interests in serving Hungarian interests, as well as Chinese interests, only Chinese interests. It’s our money, so – of course, we also know that Orbán’s favourite friend, and as we call him, ‘his purse’, Mr Meszaros, and his company’s going to be building this railway and the Chinese company and Chinese people will also be building this railway. We also know that it will cost – and I’m not saying that there is no corruption in Serbia, but it will cost 40% higher for every kilometre in Hungary than it costs in Serbia, 40% more.

So, again, there’s absolutely no benefit for Hungarian economy, I would say, or no reason. They said that it’s a returnable product – project. It’s – it will return in 972 years, economically speaking. It’s very good, because, you know, our Founding Queen – King – our Founding King, St Stephen, ruled the country about the same time, about 1,000 year ago. So, if this railway would have been built by St Stephen, then it would be returning by now. So, it’s a great investment for Hungarians. I can only assume that it is a returning investment for Orbán’s friends and family, not for us.

Professor Timothy Garton Ash

Hopefully, we’ll have another session at that point. Now, let me throw it open for questions. If you’re online, if you put the question in Q&A on Zoom. I already have several here, which I will either read out or unmute. But questions from the floor, I already see two hands. If you could wait for the microphone and demask, so we can hear you and identify yourself. Charles Grant, CER, the mic is coming now.

Charles Grant

Charles Grant from the Centre for European Reform. For the last five years or so, the European Union has struggled, without much success, to make Poland and Hungary better respect the Rule of Law. It now seems to have decided on a new method, which is to withhold money from various funds. It’s – the Commissioner’s still not approved the plan – the Hungarian plan for allowing it to take money from the recovery fund and the European Court of Justice will probably, soon, rule on the new conditionality mechanism that would allow the EU to withhold money from the recovery fund and the ordinary EU budget. Do you support the EU’s efforts to withhold money from Hungary, or could that be politically difficult for you if your – some of your citizens say, “We want the money, it would help us”? What do you do about that?

Professor Timothy Garton Ash

I have a question from Trisha de Borchgrave, which is very much along those lines, here, which is, “What has been the impact of the EU’s withholding of funds on Rule of Law grounds, on Hungarian public opinion?” So, if you could take those two.

Péter Márki-Zay

Sure. Now, first of all, yes, I am a Mayor of a middle-sized Hungarian city of 44,000, so I am, of course, not too happy that we are not going to receive such funding. I also have to admit that I’m not 100% sure that if it were up to Orbán, we would receive a penny from this funding, because Orbán distributes European funds based on political and corruption principles, not on a normative basis. I also understand the European taxpayers. If they don’t want to enrich Orbán’s friends and family with their taxpayers’ money, I totally understand and even support them.

So, our suggestion was that this money should go directly to municipalities, for example, mostly Fidesz led municipalities, but at least 40% in opposition-led cities, so that we could use it responsibly, without corruption, and to the benefit of the people and not Orbán’s family. So, that will be my suggestion, but I do appreciate European concerns for, mostly corruption, but also Rule of Law, no doubt. And I just hope that we will win the election and after the election, after us joining the European Public Prosecutor’s Office, showing the first results of an anti-corruption fight, Hungary will be worthy of receiving such funding, and it will also help us to pull the country out of recession, where it is now. Not necessarily recession based on economic growth, but economic trouble, high inflation, government deficit and hence, probably a lack of resources for further significant investments in environment, for example.

We would use European funding for making Hungary greener, insulating buildings, and that’s a great way of energy saving. It’s a returnable investment, by the way. It’s a real clear and green energy project. But there’s others, housing, public housing. There’s a shortage of housing in Hungary, which is a problem for all of us. Hungary – well, the government, sorry, is using this – the same lot and resources that were planned to be build a student city, as we call it, diákváros in Hungarian, for rural kids who study at Budapest universities, to have affordable living, affordable housing in Budapest. They use the same land and resources, of course, for the Chinese university now. So, we would definitely help the needy people and not these crazy projects, for sure.

Professor Timothy Garton Ash

Thank you very much. Tony, yeah?

Tony Barber

Yes, Tony Barber of the Financial Times. I wanted to ask you a question about the 20 years between the end of Communism, in 89/90, up to Orbán’s victory in 2010. Do you think the governments in power in those 20 years made mistakes, which helped to account for Orbán’s support in Hungarian society from 2010 onwards? What should’ve been done differently? What can you, if you were to win, do differently, compared to that period?

Péter Márki-Zay

Well, they did make a lot of mistakes, for sure. In my views, according to my information, after the regime changed, the first mistake was – and I also understand the reasons, is that there was a – not – a deal between the former Communist Government and the elite, that by giving up political power, they will keep most of the economic power, they will keep – use their positions, you know, to get influence and wealth in the new society, in the new free world. Hence, there was no making – well, having – making accountable, if you want, and there was no – for example, what happened in the Czech Republic, but even in East Germany, typically, that former Communists were held responsible and also barred from political career in the new country. And so, this didn’t happen in Hungary, for sure. There are no consequences, and this went on up until now. You know, Hungary has been a country of no consequences.

Corruption is not new. To this scale, it might be outrageous, etc., but the fact that Politicians were corrupt is not new. Ever since – you know, in pre-1990, but definitely after 1990, you know, Politicians tended to be corrupt, not all of them, fortunately, of course, but many of them, without consequences. Very few Politicians go to jail. Some do, but very few. Most of the time, parties, party financing and, also, individual riches show that corruption was not prosecuted in Hungary, and I think it was a big mistake.

In 2002, after the first Orbán Government, which I supported, as a Conservative, I voted for Orbán. I was very disappointed in 2002 that the Socialist formed government instead of Orbán. The Socialists promised that there will be this – make helding accountable. How would say – how did I say that, holding accountable process? When Keller László, who was responsible for that, as a State Secretary, started harassing corruption, he was let go from the Socialist government, so – just because he wanted to do his job.

Same thing happened in 2010. Orbán returned to power. His promise was that they would – and that was a term quoted often, of course, figuratively speaking, that they would “cut the hands of those who touch public money.” Okay, we know that there are no one armed representatives in the Parliament in Hungary, but nothing happened. So, you know, very few – even outrageous issues discovered and published by OLAF, the anti-fraud agency of the European Union, were not prosecuted. Not only Orbán’s son-in-law, which was one of these cases, but a new Metro line in Budapest, was the same case bef – from before 2010. And we have reason to believe that the political elite, left and right, Fidesz and Socialist, were in corruption together. That’s the reason why they didn’t, you know, harass each other, because of corruption, and that’s the reason why this culture of no consequences became so strong and so prevalent in Hungary, that is now – by now, clearly blocking economic and social development of the country.

So, yes, a lot of mistakes were made. Also, stupid decisions in economy, in healthcare, education. I could go on and on. I could name you many mistakes made by governments by 2010. I was always in opposition then, by the way, but I could go on and give you the same stupid things from the Fidesz Government. My best government in the last 30 years, by the way, is the first Orbán Government. The big difference between the first Orbán Government and all the other Orbán governments is that the first one is a coalition government. Orbán didn’t have two thirds majority. Orbán had control. Orbán has no control now. He has absolute power in his party, in the right side of the politics and, also in the country, and if somebody doesn’t have any control, it leads, normally, to uncontrolled corruption, as well.

Professor Timothy Garton Ash

Thank you very much. I’m going to take some questions from online. By the way, all questions so far have been from men. So, if there’s anybody who’s not a man, who would like to ask a question, please, please indicate. So, I’ll read these, ‘cause they’re three questions that relate to the elections. Firstly, from Dennis MacShane, a former Europe Minister in Britain, “How concerned are you about the ethnic Hungarian vote from Romania, Slovakia? What difference will that make?” Secondly, from Andrew Alchin, “If Fidesz loses this election, will the correct results be declared, and their consequences accepted by the government?” In other words, not just is it not fair, but free election? And then, from Edward Villiers, “What help do you need from Great Britain and the EU to ensure fair elections?” So, if you’d like to take those three, all about the nature of the elections.

Péter Márki-Zay

Yeah. So, ethnic Hungarians living in Romania and Serbia, Ukraine and, in lesser extent, in Slovakia, as well, because Slovakia didn’t allow dual citizenship, so less Hungarians are publicly dual citizens. But anyway, all these people are voting about 90/95% in favour of Fidesz. Fidesz made it possible for them to vote, even if they’re died, because you need to register only once in ten years, so if you are only dead for nine years, you can still vote, because voting is by mail. So, you know, ballots are mailed to the former address of the deceased. Some relative or local activist can pick up the mail, gather it, as they do, actually, they organise all this, so technically, this can happen. It also happens that these people are mailed a ballot, which they answer and they return it by voting to Fidesz. But in the meantime, they do have an address in Hungary, as well. They cross the border; they come and vote twice. There’s nothing to stop them from, you know, doing this.

People who live in London, Hungarians, with an address in Hungary, you know, they are temporary workers, if you want, here in London, unfortunately, they cannot vote by mail, what an injustice. But it is all explained by the fact that, as opposed to those Hungarians living in Transylvania, 90% of people living and working in London, Hungarians, they vote for the opposition. So, there’s no other clearer logic behind this. One thing is, yeah, we can say – you know, state this as a fact, but we cannot change this. Only the government, the majority, two thirds majority in the Parliament could, and Fidesz controls them. Fidesz’s interest is to maintain this situation, so they do.

Hungarians in Transylvania are voting for Fidesz because Fidesz was so generous and so patriotic that they gave citizenship and voting rights to all Hungarians, ethnic Hungarians, living in these countries. These people, they are very grateful, they are also very angry at, oh, Gyurcsány, who campaigned against this in 2004 and I also understand their anger and I tell them that, in a way, there is no significant difference between Gyurcsány and Orbán. Gyurcsány didn’t give them the citizenship and voting rights, because Gyurcsány knew that they would be voting against him. Orbán only gave them citizenship and voting rights because Orbán knew that they would be voting for him.

So, I’m the first one who insists on keeping this right for them. I want to grant them the rights, not only citizenship, which we wouldn’t take back, naturally, but also voting rights, although I know that they are voting against me. So, you know, this is the true patriotism. You know, we love them even though we know that they will not vote for us. But hopefully, maybe 10% or so will change their minds and would not support, any longer, thieves.

If Fidesz would declare and admit losing the election, remains to be seen. I really hope that we will test Fidesz’s ability. They declare now that, of course, they would. You know, what – indignantly, they said that, “Okay, what an assumption is this?” that anybody would doubt, you know, their very democratic approach to the elections. Well, one thing is for sure, that they built an elaborate scheme, a system of government, gerrymandering electoral system, media power, advertising companies. You know, this perfect empire of Orbán is there to make sure that he will never lose power. He wanted to perfect it, but it’s so perfect that he couldn’t change laws to make it even more secure for him to win the elections. So, it’s really perfect. We – as an intellectual property, I think it’s – they should copyright it.

Anyway, so, I don’t think he can do any more. We know that they are prepared to even buy golds to influence people, with force, even. You know, they made it power – it entirely legal to take a picture of your own vote. We know why they do it, because public employees will be forced to show that they voted for Fidesz, or people whose votes can be bought, you know, can be asked to give proof for – in return for the money. So, this is, you know, how Fidesz is thinking, unfortunately.

And how can Great Britain or the European Union help us? Well, apparently, you know, just by speaking up against corruption. And I did have a question when I was in Europe, for sure. I asked European Politicians that I understand that some of them are Liberals, Greens, etc., “but please do not criticise Orbán for things that he’s proud of.” If anybody criticises Orbán for not letting in enough illegal migrants, nobody does, by the way, so not that this happens, but even if something remotely reminds people of such criticism, Orbán will benefit from it, because Orbán is very proud of being anti-migrant, anti-gay, illiberal. So, if you criticise him of being illiberal, he’s very proud of it. It’s not a criticism. He will always say that “You see these European powers, they want to influence Hungary and I defend you.” You know, “It’s me who defends you, you Hungarians, because Europe wants to bring in homosexuals, migrants, etc., leftists, Soros, etc.”

So, no, no, no, you should – if anybody, then you should only criticise him of being a crook, a very corrupt Politician, betraying European values, going against the European Union and going against the Hungarian interests. So, if Europe wants to help us defend ourselves from Orbán, from corrupt Politicians, it’s helpful. If Orbán has a chance to defend Hungarians against Europe, it’s not helpful. So that was my – and pretty much with election observers, of course, indignantly, Orbán said, as well, “They can come and they can, you know, watch as much as they wish, but there’s, you know, nothing to hide.” In fact, there is, of course, so it’s also helpful if more observers will come for the election.

Professor Timothy Garton Ash

Splendid. We’ve only got about just under ten minutes left, so I’m going to group questions and I see three hands from ladies, which is fantastic.

Member

There’s more here.

Professor Timothy Garton Ash

So, I’m going to…

Péter Márki-Zay

Ladies, please.

Professor Timothy Garton Ash

First, in the second row here, then here, then there. So, this lady here in the second row. There we are.

Hilde Rapp

Thank you.

Professor Timothy Garton Ash

Fantastic. Gender equality has been restored.

Hilde Rapp

Hilde Rapp, Centre for International Peacebuilding. Thank you so much for setting out your agenda so very comprehensively. I had a question about climate change, but you’ve already, kind of, committed yourself to supporting COP27 in ways that are impressive, and you almost nearly also answered my second question, which was to do with how are you dealing with that broad church of people who are not going to be voting for Orbán, who nonetheless, have very diverse ideological and pragmatic aspirations? So, I think you might need a fifth miracle, which is, kind of, a degree in herding cats. Could you please say a little bit more about how you think you might go about that?

Professor Timothy Garton Ash

Could I add to that, ‘cause it’s so closely connected, a question from James Crisp from The Telegraph? He says, “You have a diverse coalition. If you win the election, how will you prevent your coalition from crumbling?” And I think this lady here, hmmm?

Helen Ajebet Curage

Hi, I’m Helen Ajebet Curage, one of the voters who can vote postally. How are you – how will it be possible to restore press freedom in Hungary?

Professor Timothy Garton Ash

That’s a good question, and this lady here, in the second row?

Anna Zadornova

Yeah, thank you very much to the speaker and moderator. I’m Anna Zadornova, Economist from UBS, so, my question is about economics. So, you mentioned the problem of high inflation, increase in the fiscal deficit, even though I would highlight that increase in fiscal deficits we’ve seen throughout whole of Europe, not only in Hungary, and also, a shortage of workers in the public sectors and elsewhere. So, what would you do differently to the current government that should help to alleviate these problems?

Professor Timothy Garton Ash

Thank you very much. If we’re very disciplined in time, we might get one or two more questions.

Péter Márki-Zay

Okay, but right now, can I answer these? Okay.

Professor Timothy Garton Ash

You can.

Péter Márki-Zay

So, first of all, let me answer the third question first, also, because I’m an activist, it is my favourite question, so sorry for that. So, it’s rather easy. I know managing economy is not easy at all, but we know what Orbán did wrong. His spending, his overspending, that’s the biggest issue, and that is fuelling inflation and that is fuelling, of course, budget deficit, as well. We believe that in order to address labour shortage issues, a significant wage increase for Police, Teachers and Nurses is imminent and it’s an absolute must. You cannot avoid it, because otherwise, these systems will break. So, that’s critical, cannot avoid it.

At the same time, there’s so many other things that you don’t need to spend money on, especially building stadiums. It’s like – you know, it’s such a crazy – it’s – I would – many people think that Orbán is a maniac, you know, he’s building stadiums. He has a – declared support for Hungarians living over the border, for example, in Transylvania. People in Csikszereda Miercurea Ciuc, they asked for a hospital. What did they get? A stadium. Okay, he’s also supporting people across the border, so now he’s building a stadium in Osijek in Crosia – Croatia, Osijek. Okay, what’s the proportion of Hungarians living in Osijek? 0.91%, so it’s not for the Hungarians there. There’s only one Hungarian he’s supporting in Osijek, his friend, Meszaros Lorinc, who has a football team there. Okay, so, Hungarian taxpayers, why do we finance building a stadium there? It doesn’t even help people living there.

They are moving now the Finance Ministry up to the Buda Castle. It costs 90 billion. They are renovating the National Bank building for 50 billion and I could go on and on, so many unnecessary spending, government spending. So, we…

Member

A beautiful building, the National Bank.

Péter Márki-Zay

Oh, I love the building. I was there when I – I wrote my thesis when I was studying at the Corvinus University, at the time Budapest University of Economic Studies. So, anyway, this is relatively easy. So, by responsible spending and wise spending, and stopping corruption, Hungary is building, together with Croatia, a highway, the 40km link missing between Mohács and Osijek. 20kms north of the border, in Hungary, costing 88 billion, 20kms south of the border, in Croatia, costing 20 million. So, there’s a four times – same distance, same landscape, four times difference in price. So, just by stopping corruption, you know, we can free up such resources that we can use to pay public employees in critical fields. Not everybody, not everywhere, and not indiscriminate rates of wages, but necessary increases up to a level that we can stop people leaving these fields. So, that’s a very important thing. It also is helping to curtail inflation, deficit, etc.

Ajebet’s question, press freedom, very shortly, I don’t know. Okay, we were thinking about it. There’s a team working on this, how can we restore? I like, very much, your system here in Great Britain, you know, the BBC standards, you know, times should be allocated one third, one third, one third to government, opposition and pro-government parties. So, there are a number of solutions. One thing is that I insist that press should be independent. So, state media should be – time should be, and control, should be divided up between the opposition and government and a free press is important, not suppressing – and the responsibility, as well.

I’m going back to the first group of questions, climate change, one of our favourite topic, as well. Orbán neglected it and this is another thing that has come under Trump, you know, they just don’t believe in climate change, I guess. It’s one of the key issues and economic develop also can be coupled with climate change issues. So, there is a lot of investments, returning investments, even, which are climate friendly. Abroad, this coalition for people and parties, this coalition, which we need to keep together, I would say, jokingly, that I have a nightmare, how can I govern with these six parties? I have another nightmare, which is even more terrifying, that Orbán will keep governing this country. You know, so, yes, it is a difficult job. I, you know, I’m not saying that I’m looking forward to this happy relationship with all these parties. It’s going to be tough.

It’s possible, Mr Dzurinda, a fellow Conservative, by the way, in Slovakia, had the greatest government in Slovak history with nine parties together, himself, as a Conservative, and even the Communists were part of his government. So, I think it’s possible, but it’s like herding cats. Even right now, in the campaign, it’s already causing headaches for me, and a very broad coalition, but we all stand for a free and developing Hungary, as opposed to what we see now, that Hungary became the most corrupt nation, the second – officially, second most corrupt in the European Union, officially the second poorest, currently, in the European Union. Lots of Hungarians leaving Hungary, of course, and we also have the highest number of deaths. Second highest, altogether, after Bulgaria, but last year it was the highest in the world, not just in Europe. So, you know, this is one alternative and against this alternative, we put all – you know, everything in the campaign, all our bets on changing regimes.

Professor Timothy Garton Ash

Thank you very much. I’m afraid we’ve run out of time. I do apologise to everybody who didn’t get a chance to ask a question, both physically and online. There might be a moment afterwards. I have to say, I thought that was coming towards a very Hungarian quip in the conclusion, that it’s a choice of nightmares, but we prefer the lesser nightmare, as it were. But what’s absolutely clear is that this is one of the most important elections in the European Union in the last decade, I would say, and although, while you said – you know, talking about corruption and Hungary is a country without consequences, this election will certainly have significant consequences for Europe, so we’re extremely grateful to our speaker for giving us such a great insight into this election and its possible consequences. Thank you very much [applause].