Bronwen Maddox
We have one minute to go [pause]. Senator Jeanne Shaheen, very warm welcome. Great to have you here. I’m going to say a bit in a moment about the Senator and then, we’re going to plunge into quite a wide-ranging discussion, but let me say a few things first with the obligatory post-coronavirus world of online events, housekeeping instructions.
This is on the record and it’s live-streamed. Please do, if you’re watching us online, and thank you very much again for joining us, please do start sending questions wherever you like. Use the Q&A function if you’re online, not the raise-your-hand one. But if you’re in the hall here, also please start thinking of your questions, though maybe not firing them out right away, and do, when the time comes, raise your hand and we’ll bring a mic to you. Please do keep questions as succinct as you can. In fact, my particular emphasis, one, if you could bear with us, not lots and lots of them, because there are going to be lots and lots of questions, we know that already and much, much to talk about. And if you’re asking a question online and I pick it up here, I might ask you to unmute yourself so we can actually hear your voice, if that suits you. If you don’t want that to happen, perhaps put it in the question and I will do my best to navigate that.
But with that, we are – we’ll dive into the conversation, as I said. What a pleasure to have you here.
Jeanne Shaheen
Nice to be here.
Bronwen Maddox
You are the Senior Senator for New Hampshire, who first arrived in that post in 2009. I think the first woman to become the Senator and Governor of that and really central to our discussion this evening, not just on the Committee on Foreign Relations in the Senate, in fact the only woman there, but Chair of the Subcommittee on Europe and Regional Security and also very close to our heartland here at Chatham House. You also have served as the Director of Harvard’s Institute of Politics at the Kennedy School. So, many, many – you don’t need qualifications but many, many points we will talk on, and you have just come back from the Western Balkans, which is one thing that I do want to touch on.
But let’s start with Ukraine. It is so much dominating conversation, never mind the headlines, at the moment, and something that I know is dominating conversation for you and your colleagues in the Senate. How would you assess this particular week that’s gone by with us, the rise in rhetoric that we’ve seen?
Jeanne Shaheen
There’s certainly a lot to say about what’s happened this week, but before I get into that, let me thank you and Chatham House for having me here, everyone for joining us, both here in the audience and online. Let me also express my condolences on the passing of the Queen. This is my first time in London since her passing and people in America watched, I think, with a great deal of sadness and appreciation for the service that the Queen had provided to Great Britain and really to the world. So…
Bronwen Maddox
Let me say thank you for that. She was our Patron at Chatham House, but I know what you’re saying echoes what a lot of people have felt in the UK and outside and I know that will be appreciated and people share those feelings, even people who didn’t expect to, so no, thank you. Thank you very much indeed for beginning that way.
Jeanne Shaheen
Thank you. On Ukraine, it’s been a positive week, I think, for the Ukrainian military effort. It’s been a distressing week in terms of Vladimir Putin, his efforts to annex the referen – the fake referendum, the effort to try and say to the rest of the world that those regions in Ukraine, Donetsk and Luhansk are part of Russia and to try and make that part of Russian policy and to escalate his rhetoric around the use of nuclear weapons. So, that has been, I think, distressing and it’s important for us to point out that this is not real.
This is Vladimir Putin’s attempt to do what he has done in Georgia, what he did earlier in Crimea, to claim this territory as part of Russia and it’s not party of Russia. It’s a separate country that has its own sovereign identity and its own vision for its future and it needs to be allowed to pursue that future. And those of us who care about democracy and who believe that the world order that says autocrats can’t just move in and take over another country, I think have made clear our intent to do everything we can to support Ukraine.
Bronwen Maddox
So, we have, as you said, this ramping up of the language from President Putin himself, from the leader of Chechnya talking almost candidly about the use of “low yield nuclear weapons,” in the phrase of the Chechen leader. How should the US and its allies, we’re sitting in one of them, respond to this? We heard yesterday on the front page of the New York Times options for the US in this, but we’ve had also Russian – senior Russians exploring their options through social media, almost a game of words but it isn’t a game. How does the US and the UK and others actually deal with this threat of using nuclear weapons?
Jeanne Shaheen
Well, I think it’s been accurately characterised as “the biggest nuclear threat since the Cuban Missile Crisis” in the early sixties and, as someone who remembers that as a teenager, it is a very dangerous situation. I think the US, President Biden and our National Security Advisor have responded appropriately by letting Putin know very directly that there will be catastrophic consequences for any attempt to use nuclear weapons, and I think there are a lot of options that have been talked about. I don’t think it serves us well to telegraph to Vladimir Putin how we would respond directly in that kind of circumstance, beyond pointing out that there would be disastrous consequences for the Russians.
Bronwen Maddox
Right, so that includes everything from the economic to the military?
Jeanne Shaheen
Absolutely.
Bronwen Maddox
Absolutely. What does the US want from the UK at this point in dealing with Ukraine?
Jeanne Shaheen
You know, I think one of the most important aspects of the response from the West to Russia’s attack on Ukraine has been the unity that has been shown. The unity in NATO, this has probably been the most unified and together that NATO has been in decades, not something that Vladimir Putin was expecting to happen. I think he thought that this would be an opportunity to separate, divide the allies, to divide NATO and that has not happened, and part of that has been the alliance with the UK and the United States and the unity again that we have shown along with NATO in responding to Russia.
Bronwen Maddox
Do you think the Afghan exit and the manner of that exit encouraged President Putin? It was an exit that the UK did not want, certainly in that manner and at that time, so it was the spectacle of members of NATO withdrawing from a country very quickly, despite their promises and not in agreement with each other.
Jeanne Shaheen
Well, I certainly didn’t agree with the withdrawal from Afghanistan. I was one of those who spoke out against it. But, I think there are a lot of things that we can say have contributed to Putin’s actions in Russia. Certainly, what happened in Afghanistan was not helpful in terms of the future of the Afghan reg – Afghan people and the region. But whether there’s a direct line between that and Putin’s actions, I think is hard to determine.
Bronwen Maddox
You’ve just come back from the Western Balkans and I was asking beforehand whether you thought that this was a neglected, sort of, set of problems there and concerns, and you said – now you’ve started nodding at me, so perhaps you can – I think you and I very much agree on this, what is the nature of the concern that we should have there?
Jeanne Shaheen
Well, I actually am here because I was in Bosnia Herzegovina for their elections on Sunday.
Bronwen Maddox
As an observer.
Jeanne Shaheen
As an observer, part of the OSCE mission and on my way there, I stopped in Albania, another Western Balkan country that is important as we think about the future of that region and what that means for Europe and European security. And one of the things that I heard when we were there for the elections was the continued meddling of Russia, the disinformation that is rampant throughout Bosnia Herzegovina but also throughout the region. Concern that that is a place that has – where we have not seen the kind of progress towards democracy that I think Europe and the United States were expecting and hoping would happen at the end of the war.
And given the investment in the late 90s, the early part of this century, it seemed to be on a path that was positive, and yet now we’re seeing this backsliding there, both in Bosnia, as well as across the Balkan region. And it’s a place where we want to invest and pay attention because there’s the potential to have the kind of disruption that Russia has put on Ukraine, happen there, in a way that would undo all of the investment, all of the lives and the time and energy that were spent in the Western Balkans.
Bronwen Maddox
Which they were. It was one of the first things I covered when I became the Foreign Editor of The Times here, coming back from Washington, what now seems some time ago because the world is so different then. But as we’ve said, a lot expended, including investment, a lot of thought, lot of lives. How much do you think this is something that Europe can, as well as perhaps should, influence?
Jeanne Shaheen
I think it can have a huge impact and one of the things that happened Sunday night after the election was that a number of measures by the High Representative, who was there with powers that were established after the Dayton Agreement, to help the country move towards democracy. And the measures that he put in place are designed to try and help them be able to form a government. We’ve have four years without a government in Bosnia and the ethnic rivalries have been permitted to prevent the formation of a government, to prevent the ability of the country to move forward. So, that’s something, again, that Europe has been able to do and I was disappointed to see…
Bronwen Maddox
Has been able to do, sorry, in what sense?
Jeanne Shaheen
In that we still have this High Representative with long powers and the United States was very supportive of those efforts. I was disappointed – and the UK was supportive. I was disappointed that the EU has not been so supportive of the action by the High Representative.
Bronwen Maddox
What would you like the EU to do now?
Jeanne Shaheen
To endorse his actions.
Bronwen Maddox
Thinking back to that point, under President Clinton, the other side has a very long way away – the other side of 9/11, of the Iraq and Afghan conflicts that followed, that was not a particularly high point of American willingness to be involved in foreign conflicts, let alone to resolve them. The US did but it took some persuasion, as we know, before it began to get involved from the air and so on. How would you calibrate the US’s feeling about its willingness to be a world leader now?
Jeanne Shaheen
I think it’s gone up dramatically. Now, I’ve led a bi-partisan delegation from the Senate to the NATO Conference in Madrid, the NATO Summit, and we met with a whole range of people, including your new Prime Minister here, as Foreign…
Bronwen Maddox
When she was Foreign Secretary.
Jeanne Shaheen
When she was Foreign Secretary. Also, Chancellor Scholz, we met with the Japanese Prime Minister, because there were countries from the Indo-Pacific there, as well, and what we heard from everyone we met with was the importance of leadership in the United States. And again, there was strong bi-partisan agreement because I think there is recognition that, as democracies around the world, what happens in Ukraine, what happens in the Balkans, has some impact on our national security in the United States.
Now, we are inter-related and even though we have oceans on either side, that doesn’t prevent the United States from being affected by what’s happening. And I have been pleased to see the bi-partisan unity in Congress for supporting Ukraine. We just passed a resolution that kept our Government operating that included over $12 billion to support Ukraine and that partnership with the UK, with the West, in supporting Ukraine, matters to all of us. You know, I had the opportunity last week to meet with four women soldiers from Ukraine. They were amazing. They were in the United States with a simple message and one of the Sergeants said to me, she said, “We want you to give us the weapons to help us fight this war. We will fight it so that you don’t have to.” And that’s a message that I have relayed to my constituents in New Hampshire, and it resonates because people understand if we don’t stop Putin now, who knows where he goes next?
Bronwen Maddox
So, I’m fascinated by what you’re saying. I think a lot of people listening to this will be absolutely delighted to hear that America was now keen, again, to take a leadership role in the world. But we’re not talking very long after the Afghan exit when President Biden was saying, “Look, we want out really quickly because the American people don’t want it, they have had enough of this.” So, is it simply Ukraine, maybe China too, that has caused this change of mood which you’re describing?
Jeanne Shaheen
Well, I think, again, I was not in favour of the way we withdrew from Afghanistan, but I appreciate that we had been in that fight for 20 years and I think it was hard for people to see the benefits to world – the World Order, to national security in the United States and other countries that were contributing. And I think that’s the important point that we need to make to people, is what’s at stake here in Ukraine, what’s at stake with China, what’s at stake as we look at our futures? And, you know, it’s not just Russia that’s watching what happens in Ukraine, it’s our adversaries. It’s China, it’s Iran, North Korea and what happens in this war is going to have an impact on what happens to World Order in the future.
Bronwen Maddox
I’m going to come on to some of those questions, particularly about China and indeed, the UK, but just because you’ve spent – you’ve had a particular interest in women’s rights in a lot of what you’ve done, given the exit from Afghanistan, not a point I’m going to labour any more, but what can countries who were involved there do about women’s rights now, if anything?
Jeanne Shaheen
Well, sadly, what we’ve seen from the Taliban is what we expected we would see and the restriction on women’s ability to move freely around the country, the restrictions on dress, the ability to work, virtually all of the freedoms that women gained when the allies went into Afghanistan, have been – are being taken away by the Taliban. The ability to go to school and look at a future. I think we need to do a number of things, many that we’re already doing.
One is we need to look at the humanitarian situation there and see what we can do to help those people who are not getting enough to eat, and the United States is the biggest donor of humanitarian aid, so it’s not as much as I think the people of Afghanistan need, but I think we need to continue to do what we can to help them. We have frozen the assets of the country until the Taliban is willing to remove some of the restrictions and accept the international community’s concerns about what’s happening with women. So, we’ve sanctioned the Taliban leaders in a way that limits their ability to travel. We’ve denied them diplomatic recognition. So, I think we’re doing those kinds of – using those kinds of tools that we have available.
We also need to amplify the voices of the women who are being affected. When I was in Albania, I met with a number of Afghan refugees who were in Albania and one of the women, who had been in Parliament, was very eloquent and she repeated what I had heard from a number of Afghan women when I was there in 2019 and heard, again, when they heard that the United States was going to be withdrawing. And that was that it was important for those of us who were involved in Afghanistan, who care about the women there, to continue to point out their plight, to continue to raise their voices. She said, you know, “I believe there’s an Afghan diaspora of women and I want to see that diaspora be able to talk about what’s happening to the women in Afghanistan.”
Bronwen Maddox
Thank you for that. The subject of our talk is – and you’ve taken us round some aspects of it already, the new transatlantic relationship, is there one? What – and the UK Government has obviously had not the easiest week in the history of government, what would the US like to see from its allies?
Jeanne Shaheen
Well, as you know, the UK Government, regardless of who was in power, and the United States, have had a very close relationship and I want to see that continue to the benefit of both countries and obviously, we’re not going to agree on everything. We have our own national interests, but the partnership has been very important. It’s been important as we look at issues like Ukraine. It’s important as we think about the challenges that we face in transatlantic alliance, and I think it’s important for us to continue that relationship, to continue the discussions, to look at areas where we can co-operate. Obviously, there are a lot of economic ties between our countries and hopefully, we can continue to strengthen those.
Bronwen Maddox
How important is it to the US that the UK gets an early agreement with the EU over Northern Ireland?
Jeanne Shaheen
Well, I have a lot of constituents in my state of New Hampshire who are Irish and they’re watching closely what’s happening. I think most people read about the meeting that Prime Minister Truss and President Biden had, where he talked about the importance of getting an agreement. In April, I think it will be 25 years since the Good Friday Agreements. It would be nice to be able to celebrate those with an agreement on Northern Ireland here and the Northern Ireland Protocols. Obviously, how we get there is going to have to be determined by the groups involved and by this government, but I would hope that we would see progress and negotiations in a way that would produce some agreement.
Bronwen Maddox
There actually are signs and sounds of more progress on either side, but if the UK didn’t get an agreement over that and things escalated with the EU, what would be the cost to its relationship with the US?
Jeanne Shaheen
Well, certainly, you would hear from the US about our concerns.
Bronwen Maddox
Good to know. We could imagine the – we can fill in the blanks, I think, of what that would be. Let’s move on to China. I’m going to – we’ll keep on the conversation for, sort of, another five minutes or so. Do you keep your questions coming in. There’s one or two interesting ones already. On China, and you’ve got in the Senate, Taiwan legislation, really, under consideration. What do you expect from the party conference – the party congress in China that we’re coming up to in just a couple of weeks or so? What are you looking out for on China – on Taiwan in particular?
Jeanne Shaheen
Well, I expect Xi to declare himself ruler for life and China to continue its expansionist efforts in the South China Sea, with its neighbours and its designs on Taiwan. And the legislation that we passed out of the Foreign Relations Committee, and it’s legislation that I voted for, it passed with a strong bi-partisan vote in Committee, it’s still under consideration on the floor of the Senate, is an effort to look at how we can provide more security systems to Taiwan, how we can encourage their participation in the international institutions.
It doesn’t change what has been the policy of the United States of strategic ambiguity to China and Taiwan, but I think it’s important to re-affirm the interest that the United States has in our relationship with Taiwan. I think there is a great deal of concern in Congress and the United States after the Speaker’s visit to Taiwan, in the way that China responded to that visit, which was something that members of Congress had been doing for years. And to see that kind of reaction, I think there is a great deal of concern about what that means for China’s escalation and China’s, really, designs on incorporating Taiwan into Mainland China.
Bronwen Maddox
One of the things I’ve been talking to Chatham House colleagues a lot about, this is the slowing of the Chinese economy, the possible implosion of the property boom, and it’s certainly been fuelling a lot of recent growth. Is that good or bad for the US? I’m thinking partly of the possible response of the Chinese leadership to that, but also the way that health of the – the growth of China’s economy and its products are so embedded into Western economies. This flood of cheap goods, of digital products and so on. If China slows down, good or bad in the perspective of Washington?
Jeanne Shaheen
Well, it certainly has an impact on the world economy and we’ve seen that contribution to the supply chain issues that we’ve had in the United States and around the world. You know, in an ideal world, China would see it in their interest to get along with the rest of the world and to not be developing these aggressive tendencies, but, you know, sadly they’re not viewing things that way. And I think there’s a lot of reason to believe that their intense reaction to the Speaker’s trip had a lot to do with what was happening internally with China, with the slowing of the economy, with the fact that Xi’s COVID policies had not worked very successfully. There was a lot – there’s been a lot of discontent with that.
So, I do, I do think that that has contributed. You know, Politics 101 is that if you’re having trouble at home, find an enemy and start picking that fight with the enemy, so that people will forget the problems at home, and I think we’re seeing some of that in China.
Bronwen Maddox
Are we seeing that in the US?
Jeanne Shaheen
Well, we’re – I think we are responding to what’s happening in China. China has been the aggressor. It’s China that has cracked down on human rights of the weaker people. It’s China that’s using extensive surveillance tactics over their own people. It’s China that’s talking aggressively about going after Taiwan, that’s increased their military dramatically, that has – is building military encampments in the South China Sea. So, the United States isn’t doing that. We’re responding to the concerns that we’re hearing about what China is doing.
Bronwen Maddox
I wonder if we can wheel at the end back to – is it – to the US itself, a subject of endless fascination in the UK and to our members and our wider audience. What’s going to determine the outcome of the midterm elections, do you think?
Jeanne Shaheen
Boy, if I knew that, I’d really be good.
Bronwen Maddox
You could come and work here.
Jeanne Shaheen
Yes, it’d be a lot better than a Senator. You know, midterm elections of the party in power have historically, not been good for the party in power and we’ve seen that time and again. The – right now, as you probably know, the Democrats control The White House, the House and the Senate. The Senate is split 50/50, but we have the majority because we have the Vice President, who, as Al Gore used to say, “When I vote, we win.” And so, the Vice President votes with the Democrats, obviously, when there’s an issue that’s split 50/50.
My guess is that this is going to be a very close election. There have been a number of events that have improved the potential for incumbent Democrats to get re-elected, but it’s very close and it will continue to be close, and I think it’s very important for all of us to work hard between now and the election. You know, a month is an eternity in campaign politics and so, we’ll see.
Bronwen Maddox
And these – some of these things we’ve been talking about, well, there’s – you know, China or what’s happening in Ukraine, does that touch the midterms in any way, or is it really things closer to home? It is the economy, it is inflation, it is those things?
Jeanne Shaheen
It is that, it is also the Supreme Court decision on Roe v. Wade and what that means for women’s rights in the United States. It is the contrast between where candidates stand on issues that matter to the people of our country and my state of New Hampshire. People care about affordable healthcare. We just passed legislation to help people with the cost of healthcare, that will reduce the cost of prescription drugs. We just passed legislation that provides for the most dramatic expansion of benefits for veterans in about 30 years. Last year, I worked very closely with a bi-partisan group to work with the Biden administration to pass a package on infrastructure. That was the biggest investment in roads, bridges and water, broadband, since Eisenhower did the Interstate Highway System.
So, there have been significant moves that make a difference for the people of our states and our country and pointing out that most of those were done by Democrats. Many of them had bi-partisan support, and it’s important to work in a bi-partisan way, but when we responded to COVID with what we called the American Rescue Plan to provide help for small business, to provide help for states and local communities that were in trouble, we passed it without one Republican, because they refused to support that kind of help for people. And I think that’s going to make a difference in these elections.
Bronwen Maddox
One question, as you know, people ask a lot outside the US, is, how much trouble the country is in. Is it – it really looks like two nations, sometimes, with very different views, and a great block of people questioning the legitimacy of its institutions, its Supreme Court, or on the other hand of the last presidential election. How worried should people be outside the US about what is going on there?
Jeanne Shaheen
Well, I think it’s very troubling that there were many followers of Donald Trump who, when he lost the presidency in 2020, said to his supporters, “This election was not a free and fair election.” It was a free and fair election. Joe Biden won by about eight million votes and I think it’s important for us to continue to point that out to people. But it’s also a reminder that democracy is fragile, you know, and it only works if we all participate and we make it work. And we have to continue to remind people of that, and that’s one of the issues in these elections and sadly, in the Federal races in New Hampshire, where we have two members of Congress in one Senate race, all of the opponents of the incumbents who are Democrats refuse – are election deniers. They all oppose women’s reproductive rights. They have very extreme views on a whole range of issues, and I think those are the differences that it’s important to point out.
That’s what campaigns are about. It’s about pointing out the differences between candidates and what that means for the people who are going to be affected and what it means for the future. And that’s the challenge of these midterms and it’s important for us to point that out and, also, to remind people how critical it is to participate in democracy, to participate in government, to get involved.
Bronwen Maddox
And I’m thinking of someone who sat at the Chatham House dinner table last night, I’m operating under the Chatham House Rule, that “People outside the US don’t get it. They misunderstand that the, you know, the potential for conflict and disagreement is built into the Constitution, the very nature of politics and anyway, it is easy to overestimate the value of government in smaller countries where the government plays a bigger role.” But from what you’re saying, there’s a picture of you – of acknowledging the point, as you put it, that democracy is fragile.
Jeanne Shaheen
I had a, you know – my favourite Political Science Professor in college used to say that “In the United States we have a revolution every four years, it’s called an election,” and that’s what elections are about. They’re about pointing out the differences and the choices that we have for our future and again, it’s incumbent on those of us who are in leadership positions, who are candidates, to point out what those differences are and the benefits of, you know – I try and explain to people, when I’m running, why they should vote for me and what I’m going to do that’s going to help make a difference in their lives if I’m elected.
Bronwen Maddox
Well, thank you very much for – I’m just going to squeeze in one last one. Will President Biden run again?
Jeanne Shaheen
I don’t know but if he does, I’ll support him.
Bronwen Maddox
Thank you. Let’s have the lights up and I’m going – I’ve got a lot of questions here. I’m going to start in the hall, though. Let me start with someone first who’s right at the back, on the aisle. Could you say your name, please?
Terri Paddock
Oh yes, hi, my name’s Terri Paddock, I’m a US-UK dual national. Sorry, this is actually just a little bit of an observation, particularly with the Senator talking about the participatory nature of democracy, and I just want to remind her to remind any American ex-pats…
Jeanne Shaheen
To vote.
Terri Paddock
…we have the right to vote and most of us don’t and we must, and ex-pats can make the difference and it is so crucial in these midterms.
Jeanne Shaheen
Thank you very much for reminding people.
Bronwen Maddox
Thank you. There are well established voter representation groups. I know I – many of my family belongs to them. Thank you, let me take here on the aisle and then, I’m going to come to some online and then, come back.
Sir Peter Westmacott
Thank you, Senator. Peter Westmacott, nice to see you again.
Jeanne Shaheen
Nice to see you, Ambassador Westmacott.
Sir Peter Westmacott
Former Fellow. Thank you, Senator. Former member of the IOP at Harvard Kennedy School, as well, we’re thrilled to have you here. Can I just go back for a moment to what you were saying about the prospects for midterms? You said, of course – and looking further ahead to Presidentials. You said, of course, that President Biden won by millions of votes, but of course, when it came to the Electoral College, it was a bit of a squeaker and it was a handful of votes in a small number of swing states. Quite a lot of Democrats alarmed by what they talk about “voter suppression” and about the way in which the people who count the votes and have to decree whether or not a state has been won by one candidate or another are being moved around by Republicans in order to try to ensure that they don’t give what I might call, “the wrong result” in their terms in the future. How big an issue do you think this is in the swing states? Are you worried that people responsible for counting the votes may not do an honest job and are you worried that those people who find it difficult to get to the voting booths on the day are going to find it more difficult in the future than they have in the past?
Jeanne Shaheen
Well, first of all, it’s nice to see you. Thank you for joining us. I should point out that we have the United States Ambassador to the UK, Jane Hartley, also in the audience, so it’s nice to see two Ambassadors here. I am worried. I think voter suppression is a bad thing, whether it happens in Bosnia Herzegovina or whether it happens in the United States and it’s important for us to point that out. It’s one of the reasons that I think having election observers is a good thing and we expect to have election observers at our elections.
As a member of the Democratic Party, I have participated in, we call them hole-watchers in my state of New Hampshire, but I have participated in that and I think it’s really important to do that. And I think it’s one of the concerns that I have and, again, why it’s so important for people to pay attention to what’s going, because that’s going to influence the outcome of elections. And we also have significant gerrymandering going on in certain parts of the United States, so designing districts to benefit one party or the other. I think that’s also a real threat to democracy. So, I think it’s something that we need to stay alert about and try and encourage people to call it out whenever they see it.
Bronwen Maddox
Thank you. I’m going to take on online from Michael Harvey. Do we have Michael Harvey able to speak? If you unmute yourself. If not, I’ll read it out.
Michael Harvey
Hello.
Bronwen Maddox
Hello, Michael.
Michael Harvey
Hello there.
Jeanne Shaheen.
Hello.
Bronwen Maddox.
Hello, do you want to ask your question, Michael?
Michael Harvey
Yes, please.
Bronwen Maddox.
Sorry, please…
Michael Harvey
Hello there, can you hear me? Can you hear me?
Bronwen Maddox.
Yes, we can, Michael. It was a good question.
Michael Harvey
Oh, thank you very much. What would it take for bi-partialism or at least a reduction in partisism to return to United States politics? Does it need a Cold War?
Bronwen Maddox.
Thank you.
Jeanne Shaheen
I’m not sure I quite understood what he was asking.
Bronwen Maddox.
And it’s a really interesting line of discussion of whether the US’s divisions have opened up because of lack of an external enemy, if you like. And so, Michael’s saying, is it going to take a new Cold War, a threat outside, to bring bi-partisanship back to American politics?
Jeanne Shaheen
Well, I hope not. But I would argue that there is bi-partisanship, pretty important bi-partisanship in terms of the foreign policy of the United States. And, as I said earlier on Ukraine, there has been strong bi-partisan support in Congress for supporting Ukraine. The same has been – is true, as I said, of China. There’s a strong bi-partisan effort to look at ways in which we can encourage China to be less autocratic, less interested in accessing and taking ove – annexing Taiwan. So, I – and there’s been a fair amount of bi-partisanship in terms of legislation that has been passed this year.
One of the concerns I have is that what we are seeing develop in some elements of the party, and I would argue that the Republican Party has been more of an issue than the Democratic Party on this front, but some problems on both, is that the extreme elements have discouraged people who are elected officials from compromising, from trying to reach consensus. And, you know, the United States was built on compromise. That’s the basis of our Constitution.
Legislation almost always take compromise and when you have parties that get so extreme, in the United States, our Primary System has had a lot to do with that, because what we’ve seen is that the Primaries tend to move people to either end of the ideological spectrum. That is not good in terms of being able to get agreement, and the idea that somebody is going to be censored by their party because they’re willing to compromise, is antithetical to how democracy should work. We’re losing a number of people, particularly on the Republican side in Congress and the Senate who will tell you that they’re not running again because they’re being attacked within their own party because they’ve been willing to try and reach agreement, been willing to work with – on the other side of the aisle. So, I think that’s the Cold War I’m concerned about, the partisanship that creates that.
Bronwen Maddox
Thank you very much. Let me take another up on here, on the aisle again. I’m going to take two at this point and then, I’ll come further forward.
Irbin Marsh Williams
Senator Shaheen, good to see you again.
Bronwen Maddox
Would you like to say your name?
Irbin Marsh Williams
My name’s Irbin Marsh Williams. So, on this side of the pond, I think it’s fair to say that we have great respect for American democracy and the Constitution and your mature system of government. And then, on January 6th 2021, we saw something that was just shocking, which was what seemed to be an attempted coup and it was something that maybe you would expect to see in Brazil or South American nations, for example, or Africa or whatever, but not America. So, I know that you were personally involved there, so it would be interesting for your, sort of, perspective on what happened on the day. But, my question is this. Seeing those things on the television, hearing it in the news, do you think that’s something which perhaps emboldened the Russian leadership and the Russian media, seeing America divided and weakened, and perhaps whether that contributed towards what’s going on at the moment in Ukraine in terms of Russia’s willingness to actually pursue this “special military operation” so to speak?
Bronwen Maddox
Thank you very much, you put it very well. And let me come just two rows forward, here, thank you.
Jonathan Singh
Good evening, Senator. My name’s Jonathan Singh and I’m a member here at Chatham House. Actually, following up on that question, to what extent do you think the rise of populist parties on both sides of the Atlantic has undermined the transatlantic relationship, notwithstanding the coming together around Ukraine? And further to that, what advice what you have on – for British or European policymakers around the prospect of a change of government in the US, back to a Trumpian style Republican approach to foreign affairs?
Jeanne Shaheen
Well, obviously, like most Americans who lived through January 6th, I was very concerned about what happened. There was – and I think the hearings that have been done by the Congressional Committee have revealed that there was a deliberate effort to overturn the results of the election. It failed and I was pleased to be there that day, with people on both sides of the aisle, who said, “We are not going to go home. We are going to come back. We are going to count these votes. We are going to make it very clear that these election results were correct and we are going to validate those.” So, I think that was very important and again, it is a reminder that democracy is fragile.
And do I think Putin and our adversaries looked at that and said, “This is an opening”? Sure. I think, you know, we have very good documentation to show that Russia meddled in the elections in 2016, that they continued to meddle in 2018 and in 2020 and they will continue to meddle. And I think there’s probably pretty good documentation to believe they’re meddling in a lot of other countries, and again, I don’t think there’s a magic silver bullet here to how do we address this? And that’s why participation is important. That’s why it’s important for leaders to denounce those kinds of efforts on Former President Trump.
I don’t – I think he probably will run for office again in 2024 given his legal problems. That seems to be one way for him to raise money. I hope that – I think there will be a challenge within the Republican Party. I would hope that we would see the Republican Party begin to go back to what have been its historic roots, to denounce the behaviour of Former President Trump, but so far, they haven’t been. Most people have not been willing to do that.
Bronwen Maddox
In theory, the money that Trump raises for campaigning should not be used to address his legal problems.
Jeanne Shaheen
That’s right. Well and, as we know, he has legal problems and I think that’s one of the investigations that will continue.
Bronwen Maddox
Oh, and it is – anyway, it’s a effective diversion of attention, as you say. Let me take one online from Ciara Beades, if I’ve pronounced your name correctly. You asked two very good questions. It was particularly the one on the Supreme Court that I was interested in, and if not, I’ll read it out. Just a moment waiting for the voice. I’m going to read it out. “Senator, what are the chances…?”
Jeanne Shaheen
Oh.
Bronwen Maddox
Hello?
Ciara Beades
Oh, sorry, can you hear me?
Bronwen Maddox
Yes, we can. Great.
Ciara Beades
Hi, Senator, thank you very much. I find it really fascinating. My question around the Supreme Court was, what are the chances of anything being done to re-balance it, particularly as it’s fallen very far to the right of where the average American is? And unfortunately, the US Supreme Court’s influence, I guess, is outsized internationally and you see the effect of their decisions in other jurisdictions. So, is there anything likely to be done to bring it back into line?
Jeanne Shaheen
I doubt that we will see a change in the organization of the Supreme Court. What I would like – so, there have been some suggestions that we should increase the numbers of Supreme Court Justices. I don’t think that will happen. What I would like to see, however, is an effort to examine the ethics of the Supreme Court. You know, in Congress, everyone who works in Congress has to fill out an ethics form that talks about what we get in contributions, what we’re spending and where our income comes from, for myself, for my family members. The Supreme Court has none of that and it’s raised some concerns about what the Supreme Court is doing.
I do think it’s positive to see the number of Judges that have been appointed by the Biden administration to the Lower Courts. Our District and Appeals Courts have had more Judges appointed in this period of time than the previous administration did, which has been very position. So, I think, as I try to point out, on issues like women’s reproductive rights, the Roe v. Wade decision, that the way to address that is to elect people who are going to make sure that it continues to be legal and to point out that, you know, most of the – virtually every Republican opposes women’s reproductive rights, and that’s a real contrast. And if you care about that issue, then you better find out where people stand, because a lot of those decisions are being made not at the state level, right now. Obviously, the Republicans in the Senate have filed legislation that would outlaw abortion for everyone, for all women in the country, not just leave it on a state by state basis. We have the ability to elect Democrats to say that it should be legal for everyone, everywhere. And so, that’s – I think that’s the way we address some of these issues. And in the meantime, until we get a new Supreme Court.
Bronwen Maddox
I’m going to group together three that are online, which are all about NATO membership. From David Gellis, “Should the US help Bosnia membership of NATO?” An anonymous one on whether you would support the Ukraine’s membership of NATO, and let me register a opposite view from Stephen Wilkinson, as I’m taking it, saying, “Isn’t the US culpable for the Ukraine crisis in its desire to expand NATO membership?”
Jeanne Shaheen
Well, as I think most people know, NATO membership is determined by NATO. Other members requires consensus. We’re right now, in the process, I hope, of adding Sweden and Finland. I think most people believe they have a significant contribution to NATO. We’re still waiting for two Parliaments to approve, to ratify that accession into NATO, Turkey and Hungary. So, I think it’s important for countries to be able to determine if they would like to become members of NATO and to make the request and then, to have the NATO countries decide whether they – whether they’re able to conform with the values of NATO countries, whether they’ve got the kinds of reforms.
When I was in – I worked with Former Senator George Voinovich from Ohio to urge MAP for NATO, which is one of the preliminary steps, MAP for NATO, for Bosnia Herzegovina. Back in 2010, we worked with Hilary Clinton when she was Secretary of State. But what we didn’t see following that was the reforms that Bosnia had agreed to do that needed to be done in order to conform with NATO’s requirements. So, I think it’s a two-part process and the United States can advocate, but it’s NATO that decides who gets in.
Bronwen Maddox
So, does – I mean, it is technically right, but the – NATO is so dependent on the US for money and military capability, a point the US makes very often, that the US does have the, you know, in a sense, the core voice on that.
Jeanne Shaheen
No, I would disagree with you.
Bronwen Maddox
Alright.
Jeanne Shaheen
Turkey can keep out Sweden and they’re trying very hard to do that, as long as they refuse to ratify that agreement. And so, yes, the United States has a huge contribution to NATO that I think is very important, because I think NATO has been one of the most important security agreements in modern history, certainly, in helping to protect the countries that are part of NATO. But as we’re seeing from Turkey, and Hungary, who have not been particularly productive players right now around some of the decisions for NATO, there are – each country has a voice in determining the outcome of who joins.
Bronwen Maddox
Thank you. Let me squeeze in two more. Who have we got? Sorry, I’m scanning the hall because are there lots of – let me go over here on the aisle, here.
Elena Cogbrough
Hi, thank you so much for being with us today. My question is…
Jeanne Shaheen
Can you tell us your name?
Elena Cogbrough
Elena Cogbrough. If it’s relatively, I guess, simple or straightforward to, kind of, come up with bi-partisan ideas of consensus for international issues, why does it seem so challenging to come up with ideas of consensus and ideas on which everyone agrees on for domestic issues?
Bronwen Maddox
How interesting, thank you for that.
Harriet
Particularly social issues.
Bronwen Maddox
Thank you very much, indeed, and another one on the – keep going, yes, with your hand up. Sorry, there were several people. Yes, please, yes, you.
Harriet
My name’s Harriet. I just wanted to ask, do you think that America, and to a push NATO, could be spreading themselves too think if there’s issues in Russia and Ukraine, China and Taiwan and even North Korea, with what they seem to be doing the last couple of days with missile tests over Japan? Do you think that it could be too much for the US to deal with and could NATO be brought into that and they could be spread too thin, as well?
Jeanne Shaheen
Well, to respond to the first question, it’s not easy to get consensus on foreign policy and international issues. It was not easy, I think, to get consensus to respond to the threat to Ukraine and the United States. The UK and NATO all worked very hard to produce a consensus to support Ukraine. It’s also not easy to get consensus on domestic policy issues, as you point out.
Bronwen Maddox
And the other, stretched too thin, what’s your…?
Jeanne Shaheen
You know, that’s why allies are so important and, one of the reasons I think Ukraine is ultimately going to be successful is not just because of the courage of the Ukrainians, the tenacity they’ve shown in fighting Putin and the Russians, but it’s also been the support they’re getting from the West and from democracies around the world. And Russia doesn’t have a lot of friends right now. You know, China’s giving them lip service, they’re not giving them a lot of weapons. They’re buying weapons from Iran, but the United States, the United Kingdom, NATO, the Transatlantic Alliance, our partners in the Indo-Pacific, in Japan, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, together we have the economic might and the military might to be able to respond.
Now, we also have the values that say, “We don’t want war.” You know, I think Russia heard loud and clear from the West that we didn’t want war and come on, NATO never threatened Russia. If you believe that, I’ve got some wetland in Madbury to sell you, you know. That was Putin trying to make excuses to the West, trying to build a scenario that we should not believe.
So, we can’t – it’s important for us, for allies, who have values that we share, who believe in freedoms and human rights and the ability of people to determine their own future, it’s important for us to make those points. And to let people know who would spread disinformation, whether it’s from Russia or China, or Iran or where it’s from, that that’s not true, and that it’s not in our interest to fall victim to that kind of propaganda.
Bronwen Maddox
Well, thank you for that. With that, we’re going to, sadly, have to bring this to an end. We clearly could go on for a long time. I’m so sorry for all the terrific questions already. I’m so sorry for the ones in the hall that I could not get in and for the ones online, as well, for those of you sending them in. Vincent Champion, thank you for your tantalising question, “Senator, how do you see the Ukraine conflict ending and when?” But we might devote a whole session to that. I reckon we could not possibly do that justice, but every…
Jeanne Shaheen
I’ll remember that when I do the outcome of the midterms.
Bronwen Maddox
Excellent. But everyone, thank you so much for coming and could you join me in thanking the Senator being here.
