Europe’s strategic choices 2023

Given by Chatham House, ISPK and KAS

Can Europe’s response to Russia’s war in Ukraine deliver lasting change in its ability to defend itself? What are Europe’s strategic goals concerning Ukraine? How might Ukraine’s post-war integration into the EU and NATO impact on European defence?

What lessons can be drawn from the Nordic Defence Cooperation between Iceland, Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark to enhance European defence cooperation more widely?

How can we minimise the threat that the Russian state poses to the territorial integrity of neighbouring countries? Beyond enlargement, what other choices exist to safeguard future European security against the influence of Russia and China?

Would Europe be able to hold together its current governability and values, or are reforms needed to facilitate enlargement? What role for the UK in this changing order and what would be the consequences of not having the Western Balkan states on Europe’s side?

Session A | Geopolitical volatility and the energy transition

• How is the EU’s response to the US Inflation Reduction Act and increasing geopolitical tensions recalibrating Europe’s energy transition?

• How can supply chains be diversified to reduce dependencies on specific regions, particularly in relation to critical raw minerals and energy security?

• What needs to happen at COP28 to deliver a just energy transition globally?

Session B | China’s military build-up: A challenge for Europe?

• How can Europe respond to an increasing Chinese military footprint in Europe’s vicinity?

• How can Europe arrive at a coherent Indo-Pacific strategy?

• What risks for Europe does an arms race in the Indo-Pacific pose?

Session C | Turkey’s role in Europe

• Does Turkey represent an obstacle for NATO enlargement? How can Turkey’s expectations be addressed?

• To what extent can it be considered a reliable partner, given its relations with Russia and China?

• What is Turkey’s role in managing the migration and the refugee crisis?

• How can Europe contribute to stability in the Asian hotspots?

How would a Republican administration reshape transatlantic relations? Where does Europe’s strategy differ from the US, for example in the Indo-Pacific? Can Europe offer aspects of deterrence complementary to the US in potential conflict zones?

Will NATO enlargement and a greater Polish/Baltic/Nordic focus within NATO result in greater transatlantic alignment?

Session A | Protecting critical infrastructure

• How should critical infrastructure be designed to withstand acute shock and potential vulnerabilities?

• Why is enhancing security of undersea infrastructure such as gas pipelines and fibre optic cables increasingly important?

• How can cyber resiliency be boosted in the face of rising attacks?

• What emerging threats from state-aligned group should we be looking out for?

Session B | Relations between Europe and the Middle East

• How can Europe and Middle East better coordinate to tackle migration issues?

• Where is Europe is supporting conflict and peace building?

• Should, and how can, Europe provide better engagement to end the humanitarian crises in Syria, Libya, and Yemen?

• Will future relationships weaken as countries continue to decarbonise their economies?

Session C | Iran and Russia: An axis of revisionist powers?

• What steps need to be taken to counter the growing strategic cooperation between Iran and Russia?

• Could the emerging Iran, Russia, and China triangle become one of the greatest threats to peace in the Middle East and Europe?

To what extent are European powers converging or diverging on China relations? How far can China’s peace plan for reaching a settlement in Ukraine go? What will the trajectory of US politics post the 2024 Presidential election mean for Europe’s relations with China?

What would a de-risking, rather than a de-coupling, trade strategy from the Chinese economy look like in practice?

How is technology reshaping the global order? Which nations and actors will emerge victorious, and at what cost? Is Europe’s response to the US-China strategic technology competition adequate?

What strategies and policies can middle powers such as UK, India, Brazil, Japan etc. adopt? What choices does the West need to confront about the defence implications of AI and its technology influence?

Session A | Which countries are best placed to lead on AI governance and regulation globally?

• Who are the most important international partners in developing an AI regulatory framework?

• Can AI be governed by companies, individual countries or communities, or is a global framework the only way forward?

• How can countries be better prepared for the changes that such technologies will bring?

Session B | Weaponisation of information

• How are hostile actors using disinformation campaigns to achieve their goals?

• How can Central and Eastern European countries caught in the cross hairs be better protected?

• What can be done to mitigate the impact of information operations intended to damage confidence in state institutions and multilateral organizations such as the EU and NATO?

• Are the private platforms facilitating disinformation effective stewards of the digital space?

Session C | Europe and Israel: Partners for defence technology cooperation

• In what way is Israel positioned to contribute to Europe’s security after the Zeitenwende? 

• Where do opportunities lie for cooperation in the air defence realm, including and beyond the European Sky Shield Initiative?

• What next for German-Israeli cooperation in the area of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs)?

What new alliances might emerge to strengthen national security, reduce economic dependencies and facilitate the development of critical technologies? Can a competitive Europe that champions an open, rules-based international trade truly be maintained in the global shift towards more protectionist and industrial policies?

What steps need to be taken to protect strategic and sensitive supply chains? What version of Europe will emerge in next 5 – 10 years and does a role exist for the UK to forge more strategic economic ties with Europe in the process?