While limited anti-government violence is conceivable, Nursultan Nazarbayev’s fifteen-year rule is not under threat this month. Recent unexpected regime change involving popular protest in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan, as well as a rather different situation in Uzbekistan earlier this year, have prompted Nazarbayev to make the necessary preparations to avoid this in his own country.
The timing of the election is significant: a vote in winter in such a vast but sparsely populated country reduces the chances of mobilising popular support and the short notice has given the opposition little time. Meanwhile, as throughout the former Soviet Union, those few media outlets which are not state controlled are leaned on heavily, suffering at the hands of tax inspectors, anti-libel lawyers or hired thugs.
