The snap parliamentary elections that concluded on 7 July were called by President Emmanuel Macron to regain the upper hand after his party’s weak performance in June’s European Parliamentary elections.
Yet the outcome has achieved the contrary, creating political mayhem that has undermined the president’s power and shaken the foundations of the Fifth Republic as never before.
A feared victory for Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) party did not materialize, with the left wing ‘New Popular Front’ alliance holding the most seats. But no party has achieved a majority.
The dust has far from settled but four valuable conclusions can already be drawn.
French institutions
France’s politics will be less presidential, putting the Fifth Republic under serious stress: it has been based on a powerful head of state since its foundation by De Gaulle.
As if he was anticipating this, President Macron made as many ambassadors, prefects and senior civil servant appointments as possible ahead of the election’s second round on 7 July, apparently expecting he would have to share power from then on. The Fifth Republic will look more like the Fourth, which relied on the parliament and was famous for its unstable and fragile governing coalitions.
The future government will be derived, however long it may take to form, from the newly elected National Assembly and not be shaped mainly by the Elysée, as its predecessors have been. The choice of a new prime minister able to command a stable majority will be imposed on the president out of the ranks of his Renaissance party, which performed better than expected.
Until now, Macron has always picked any head of government he wanted. The ‘Popular Front’ alliance of left-wing parties, which gained the most seats in the second round, now considers itself to be in a position to govern, although it is far from securing an absolute majority and must address internal divisions and power struggles.
With much pressure from the left, a new kind of cohabitation is in the making. In past cohabitations – in 1986 and 1993 under François Mitterrand and in 1997 under Jacques Chirac – the power struggle was between the Elysée and Matignon, the seat of the prime minister.
This time, the political centre of gravity will lie at the National Assembly. It cannot be dissolved again before July 2025 and will control the fate of any cabinet until then at least.
Thus, the president’s authority has waned. With two severe electoral blows in one month, his party divided, hostile public opinion and the constitutional constraint of not being able to stand for another term, President Macron’s political capital is shattered for the short- to medium-term – unless he succeeds in splitting the left and manages to keep his party in a minor but key role in a future coalition.
France in the world
President Macron, who can stay in office until May 2027, will use what is left of this role on the global stage to try to maintain France’s influence and build back his reputation.
As head of state, he will still represent the country in international forums, starting with the NATO summit in Washington DC this week, followed by the European Political Community summit at Blenheim Palace on 18 July.
Even though foreign affairs and defence remain his domaine réservé, the president will be dependent on the budgetary resources allocated by the government.
Appointments will require the formal approval of the prime minister, as in the past, but must now also be negotiated with them – even if there were to be a large multi-party coalition more aligned with the president on international and European affairs than an RN cabinet would have been.
Lasting political confusion in France would hurt its leadership abroad and the prospect already worries the European Union, starting with Germany. The ability of Paris to generate new policy ideas that are taken seriously will be limited.
The period of political turmoil ahead will also test the resilience of France’s long-standing diplomacy and its capacity to respond to an international crisis.
France’s financial constraints
Financial markets signalled relief after the election’s first round, confident that an RN-led government was out of reach. But any future cabinet will have to repair the public accounts, possibly thwarting the government’s broader ambitions.
The budget deficit of 5.5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023 and the public debt over 110 per cent of GDP require strict fiscal discipline, expected both in Brussels and by France’s partners, not least Germany.
The next government will have no choice other than to reassure markets that they can still comfortably lend to France.
Its challenge will be to stay fiscally on track while facing a ruthless opposition unwilling to compromise ahead of the 2027 presidential race. Any deep structural reform before then thus appears unlikely.
French society
The three blocs that the elections have put in evidence, from Jean-Luc Mélenchon on the far left to Le Pen on the far right, are the political manifestation of a much polarized and fragmented society that even President Macron depicted as on the brink of a ‘civil war’.