Many voters intend to shun presidential elections in Belarus, according to research carried out by Chatham House.
The number of people who say they plan to cast their vote at the polls has dropped from 75 per cent in 2020 – the last election, to just 36 per cent this time round, with Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s return to power in what would be his seventh term seen by many as a fait accompli.
The survey* by the institute’s Belarus Initiative also found that intention to vote was far higher among pro-government supporters (61 per cent) compared to just 11 per cent of pro-democratic voters.
Of those asked why they would probably not be voting this time round, 58 per cent of respondents said the fact that the election result was pre-determined meant there was no point.
In terms of their perceptions of Aliaksandr Lukashenka, respondents were generally dissatisfied or somewhat dissatisfied with the situation in Belarus, citing many issues relating to the economy, corruption, migration and both domestic and foreign policy.
Only 11 per cent of respondents were definitely satisfied with the economy, 41 per cent dissatisfied with domestic policy and 36 per cent dissatisfied with foreign policy.
However, the survey found that Lukashenka is primarily perceived as a politician who is ensuring that Belarus does not get involved in active military action.
Furthermore, it found that 40 per cent of Belarusians do not support Russia’s military action in Ukraine, compared to 32 per cent who do.
Dr Ryhor Astapenia, Belarus Initiative Director who led the research said:
‘Most Belarusians, except for supporters of the authorities, believe that the election will not be conducted fairly. Nearly 90 per cent of respondents consider it important that votes are counted honestly, but half as many believe that an honest count is possible.
‘Opinions about the election results are divided. Many are convinced that the outcome of the election does not depend on the voters, while others believe that the majority truly votes for Aliaksandr Lukashenka, and some simply do not think about it.
‘Against the backdrop of anti-war sentiments among Belarusians, Aliaksandr Lukashenka has crafted a favourable image of a politician striving to prevent Belarus from being involved in the military conflict following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, he receives unequivocal support only from the strongly pro-government group.
‘At the same time, the level of satisfaction with the current situation in the country is not high. Belarusians express dissatisfaction with the economic situation, the level of corruption, migration policy, and the domestic and foreign policies of the state’.
For more details about the survey or other issues please contact: [email protected].
* This survey was conducted with 833 respondents between 9 December 2024 and 15 January 2025, which was supplemented with in-depth interviews with Belarussians of a range of different political views.
You can view the findings in more detail in this PowerPoint and you can visit the Belarus Initiative website’s summary here.