The meeting of al-Sharaa and Trump has shifted the balance of power in the Middle East

Saudi Arabia is tying respect for Syrian sovereignty into prospects for normalized relations with Israel – and claiming US support for that approach.

Expert comment Published 16 May 2025 Updated 5 June 2025 4 minute READ

On 14 May 2025, US President Donald Trump met with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Riyadh. It was the first high-level US–Syria meeting since US President Bill Clinton met with Syrian President Hafez al-Assad in Geneva 25 years ago. This extraordinary moment seemingly gave al-Sharaa the US stamp of approval and signalled that the Trump administration has finally arrived at a Syria policy.

It is still hard to comprehend that the so-called leader of the free world shook hands with the man who led Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda affiliate, before cameras – later describing him as a ‘young attractive tough guy’.

It also says a lot about Donald Trump’s leadership style. As recently as December 2024 he had posted on social media platform X: ‘Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED !’ But on 13 May, during a 48 minute address to the US-Saudi Investment Forum, Trump had made a surprise announcement: the US would lift all sanctions on Syria.

He had promised big news before he began his three-day tour of Gulf Arab states, but very few policymakers around the president had thought this possible or known about his plans. The news was met with celebration throughout Syria and the wider region.

In many ways, the meeting between Trump and al-Sharaa is monumental. Yet, the more consequential development is the part played by Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) in facilitating the introduction, shaping the outcome – and sending an unmistakable signal to Israel.

What does it mean?

Explaining his motives, Trump did emphasize that sanctions relief is aimed at encouraging Syria to normalize relations with Israel. He also cited the need for al-Sharaa to expel foreign militants, deport radical Palestinian groups, and assist in keeping ISIS at bay.

Trump’s apparent volte face…will require his administration, many of whom reportedly oppose the new policy, to be committed to following through.

But it means far more than that to Syrians and their new government. Lifting sanctions will have far-reaching consequences. It will allow the unfreezing of Syria’s international assets, enable foreign businesses to re-enter key sectors such as construction, energy, and trade, and restore Damascus’s access to global financial systems and credit.

It will also improve the flow of goods, medicine, and technology, and ultimately, increase job creation and ease inflationary pressures. In short, it has the potential to begin Syria’s reconstruction in earnest and help Syrians move on to the next stage of their country’s future – a more hopeful one.

In other words, Trump’s apparent volte face has the potential to transform Syria’s future. However, it will require his administration, many of whom reportedly oppose the new policy, to be committed to following through on his pledges – and there’s the rub.

Easy come, easy go

President Trump is a profligate executor – he clearly enjoys announcing executive orders and appears to measure his government’s success in part by the number issued.

However, his administration has a weakness on following through on its rhetoric. For example, Trump quickly grew weary of his campaign against the Houthis in Yemen. In the case of the sanctions, it will require more than a laudatory speech for the policy to be realized in full: in fact, it will need all hands at the wheel.

There is also a danger that the president’s decision was made on the spur of the moment and at the behest of MbS: Trump opined during his address ‘Oh, what I do for the crown prince’. It is possible the president could be persuaded by another charismatic figure to change his mind again. Without a policy process to underpin his decision, there is always a risk that it will be easily derailed.

Furthermore, only sanctions on Syria imposed through executive orders (EOs) can be easily lifted by Trump. These include EO 13894, which targeted those obstructing a political solution to the conflict, and EO 13572, which sanctions individuals involved in human rights abuses.

Congressional sanctions will be far harder to remove, such as those imposed under the Caesar Act. These are codified in US law and cannot be unilaterally repealed by the president. The Act targets entities that supported Assad, including foreign firms and individuals, and repealing or amending it requires Congressional approval.

Trump’s pledge to lift sanctions on Syria is easy to make, but tough to implement.

Sanctions related to terrorism will also be difficult to lift. Syria has been on the US State Sponsor of Terrorism list since 1979 and is sanctioned for previous governments’ use of chemical weapons, mass atrocities, and human rights abuses. These designations carry significant legal and political weight, making their removal both controversial and slow.

As such, Trump’s pledge to lift sanctions on Syria is easy to make, but tough to implement. It will be difficult to lift sanctions quickly. That may well test the patience of Syrians and those looking to help the country recover.

The role of MbS

Trump attributed his change of heart on Syria to two men – Turkish President Recep Erdogan and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince. There is no doubt that the role of MbS has been crucial.

Saudi Arabia has been angered by Israel’s increased military activity since al-Sharaa’s government came to power in Damascus: hundreds of airstrikes have been launched across Syria and the Israeli army has extended control over the Golan Heights. (Israel claims it is acting to shore up its security and protect Syria’s Druze minority).

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MbS’s enlisting of the US president shows that Saudi Arabia is now fully behind the al-Sharaa presidency – and is tying Syria’s future to the prospect of normalizing Riyadh’s relations with Israel.

Normalization is already on life-support after more than a year of war and humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Saudi Arabia will now likely make it conditional on Israel ceasing its military operations in Syria and withdrawing to the borders agreed in the 1974 disengagement agreements.

A shift in the regional balance of power has therefore just taken place…and all but ended Israel’s quest for further integration into the region.

In effect, MbS has added Syrian sovereignty to his list of demands before he will consider recognizing Israel. That list, which already includes Israel committing to a pathway to Palestinian statehood, will now be even more unpalatable to Netanyahu, as he considers the new Syrian government to be extremist in nature and inimical to Israel’s interests.  

But by arranging Trump’s meeting with al-Sharaa, MbS will feel that his approach has the endorsement of the US administration – and that the president will now be less inclined to link normalization between Riyadh and Tel Aviv with Saudi-US defence agreements.

A shift in the regional balance of power has therefore just taken place before our eyes – and all but ended Israel’s quest for further integration into the region.

There are risks for Saudi Arabia in this move. President Trump could simply lose interest in Syria. If al-Sharaa turns out to be a bad bet or is overthrown by extremist factions, Trump will disown the project and place the blame on Riyadh. 

Qatar has learned from experience that placing bets on militant groups who move into politics, such as Hamas, can carry high costs – especially with key partners such as the US – when things go wrong.