You wrote a forthcoming paper with Bhargabi Bharadwaj and Richard King called ‘The problem with biofuels as a response to the Gulf energy supply shock’. What are biofuels?
Biofuels are produced from organic materials, for example ethanol made from sugar cane and biodiesel from corn. Before the global energy crisis triggered by the Strait of Hormuz blockage, biofuel production was projected to grow by only 0.9 per cent a year. We calculate there will now potentially be an 11 per cent increase in biofuel production each year up until 2030. This is because countries are looking at strategies to reduce the effect of oil price volatility and to ensure there’s sufficient domestic fuel supply. Rolling out electric vehicles or solar and wind power takes time and often requires foreign technology. Biofuels are a quicker solution that can be implemented domestically, and the fuel is compatible with existing systems.
What are the risks of greater biofuel production?
The projected increase in production would require an extra 36 million hectares of agricultural land by 2030 – an area similar to the size of Germany. The growth of biofuels has been relatively slow until now, partly because they are not as sustainable as they may sound. If you look at the full life cycle of emissions, including those from converting land for crop production, often from forest, the biofuel carbon footprint is sometimes higher than that of conventional fuel.
Biofuel production also adds to increasing food insecurity. India is already using surplus rice to make biofuel, which is problematic given the risk of global food shortages. This year, the super El Niño weather event causing worldwide droughts and the fertilizer shortages due to the Hormuz crisis is creating a perfect storm for low crop yield.
What does your paper recommend?
We would like policymakers to prioritize the use of land for food production rather than biofuels. We also recommend using waste products from harvests before relying on crops grown solely to turn into biofuels.