On 18 March, Israel shattered the fragile ceasefire deal in Gaza with a renewed military assault. The ceasefire had enabled a vital break in the conflict, allowing desperately needed humanitarian aid to enter the Strip. Over 190 Israelis and foreign nationals, held captive since 7 October 2023, had also been released during the pause in fighting – alongside thousands of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli custody.
The resumption of the war has already claimed hundreds of Palestinian lives with high numbers of women and children among the dead and wounded. Politically, Israel, Hamas and the Palestinian Authority (PA) find themselves in a complex situation with no return to negotiations in sight.
Israel’s offensive has been denounced by Arab, European and other governments, and by many Israelis, although it has been supported by the US. Families of the Israeli hostages still held in Gaza accuse Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of sacrificing their loved ones for his political survival. They are supported by Israelis concerned for the state of their democracy as the prime minister attempts to oust senior officials and drive through changes to the judicial system.
Israel’s objectives
This time around, the statements and actions of the Israeli government suggest that the ultimate war objective is the military reoccupation of Gaza and to ‘encourage’ Palestinians to leave the territory for other countries.
The IDF has already drawn up plans which would see Gaza’s two million strong population confined to the al-Mawasi ‘humanitarian zone’ while the Israeli military administers Gaza as it did for four decades until 2005.
Earlier this week, a spokeswoman for Netanyahu announced the establishment of a Voluntary Emigration Bureau for Gaza residents interested in relocating to third countries, adding that this new entity will operate ‘in compliance with Israeli and international law’. These plans align with US President Donald Trump’s suggested proposal to displace Gaza’s population to Egypt and Jordan while transforming the Strip into a Middle Eastern riviera – an idea that caused UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres to warn against attempts to ethnically cleanse the territory.
Publicly Netanyahu continues to insist on achieving ‘total victory’ over Hamas. This despite the limited results of the past 18 months – manifest in the fact that Hamas still exists and continues to fire rockets and hold hostages.
The new assault on the Gaza Strip is not cost-free for Israel. It also risks destabilizing neighbouring Jordan and Egypt. Efforts to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia have been set back. Perhaps more significantly, international support for Israel after 7 October has shifted substantially after the deaths of over 50,000 Palestinians.
Palestinians’ lack of options
While Israel may be caught in a quagmire, Hamas is running out of choices. With its military capacity degraded it was forced to put all its hopes in the January ceasefire, insisting that it remained open to negotiations and calling for pressure on Israel to implement a truce. Hamas appears to have miscalculated the value of the Israeli hostages’ lives to Netanyahu’s government, which seems determined to escalate its military offensive regardless of the risks to the hostages.
Recent anti-Hamas protests in Gaza will concern a movement that has seen almost no opposition to its rule since the beginning of the war in 2023, although it is too early to assess how Hamas will emerge from the war politically. Hamas continues to sustain a support base in the Strip, but visible public discontent may force it to further soften its positions.
Meanwhile, the PA finds itself stuck once again in a difficult position. Its attempts to present itself as the legitimate representative of the Palestinians and win US support to resume government in Gaza have drastically failed.
The PA has dwindling legitimacy and credibility amongst Palestinians and is unable to exercise its authority inside the West Bank, following Israel’s escalated military operations and settler violence. President Mahmoud Abbas’s pledge to pardon exiled members of his own party Fatah hasn’t materialized yet, further undermining the possibility for unity talks between all Palestinian factions. Instead, the PA clings to the vestiges of its legitimacy, hoping that the Arab plan for peace, adopted on 4 March, will be realized and somehow save it.
Solutions
As Israeli plans to take over the Gaza Strip solidify, it is clear that the semi-solutions on the table, including an extension of phase one of the ceasefire, are not going to be enough for the region’s long-term needs.
A recent Egyptian bridging proposal to restore the ceasefire through an incremental hostage release and return to phase two of the January ceasefire may save lives. But it leaves the difficult issues that may set back the entire process unresolved and does not offer new guarantees for ending the war and Israeli withdrawal. It’s a good start but needs further development.
