Cross-border conflict, evidence, policy and trends (XCEPT)

This five-year policy-focused research programme seeks to respond to the challenges of long-term cross-border conflicts by exploring the drivers behind them.

Chatham House’s XCEPT research looks at transnational conflict across the Middle East, North Africa and the Horn of Africa. By tracing the movement of people, goods and capital across borders, the programme considers how conflict is not contained to national borders and what this means for effective and efficient policy and programming.

Chatham House’s XCEPT research considers three case studies supported by cross-cutting workstreams on gender and social inclusion, and conflict response. Each produces analysis and recommendations to inform international policy response to conflict across borders.

Iraq and the Levant
Human smuggling and trafficking to Libya
Sudan’s borderlands

The transnational nature of conflict and the risk of conflict economies becoming entrenched poses a significant challenge for policymakers, especially as the web of economic and political interactions which sustain violence and connect conflict across borders expand and deepen.

Chatham House’s XCEPT research is therefore aimed at operationalizing transnational policy approaches which effectively address the complexity of cross-border conflict while being responsive to developments on the ground and conflicts’ impacts on populations. The research draws on a range of research methods such as an innovative use of satellite data, focus groups and in-depth interviews.

Chatham House’s work is part of the broader XCEPT consortium which brings together leading organizations working on conflict. This includes The Asia Foundation, the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, the Rift Valley Institute, Chemonics UK, Conciliation Resources, King’s College London and many others. Together, the consortium brings together world-leading experts to examine conflict-affected borderlands, how conflicts connect across borders, and the drivers of violent and peaceful behavior.

XCEPT is funded by UK International Development from the UK government.

Project content

Despite legislative efforts and cooperation with the EU, migration through Niger and Libya to Europe has grown significantly in recent years. This paper examines the transnational drivers of this phenomenon, including insecurity in Libya and the mobility economy in Niger.

Exploitation and abuse of Nigerians and other people moving have become a profitable revenue source for armed groups in Libya. Tackling this situation will require both a transnational approach and policy tools beyond those traditionally associated with conflict response.

Amid civil war and territorial rivalry on both sides of the Ethiopia–Sudan border, sesame has become central to a conflict economy that perpetuates violence and political instability.

A satellite image of the Ethiopia Sudan borde, showing roads, buildings and checkpoints

Long-running border disputes between Ethiopia and Sudan are intersecting with other internal conflicts, bringing greater militarization and economic instability.

This paper explores how the remote border district of Sinjar in Iraq became a transnational conflict hub that threatens wider security in the Middle East.

In this episode, guests discuss gold’s connection to the current war and transnational dynamics.

After nearly a year of devastating conflict, there is little sign of a ceasefire. Concerted high-level international pressure is needed to change the calculations of the generals and support a democratic transition.

This episode discusses transnational links between the movement of people and armed conflict – from Edo State in Nigeria, through Niger, to Libya.

Approaching conflict as a national issue sidelines a complex web of transnational influences and threatens prospects for sustainable peace.

This paper explores the regional dimensions of the two-year civil war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region and the potential for successful implementation of the November 2022 peace agreement.

More cohesive international engagement is needed to support stability in Ethiopia and Sudan and resolve damaging cross-border disputes that jeopardize security and development across the Horn of Africa.

This episode examines the violence and harm caused by these illicit practices, and the international responses to them as part of an XCEPT project mini-series.

This episode examines relations between Ethiopia and Sudan as part of an XCEPT project mini-series.

The conflict supply chain of wheat from Ukraine and Russia to Syria highlights interlinkages between the conflicts and the role of sanctions in driving cooperation.

The case of Kufra raises difficult questions for policymakers over what interventions to support in places that have come to thrive on illicit cross-border trade.

A system involving doctors, pharmacists, political parties, armed groups, and businesspeople fuels corruption and conflict in a medicine supply chain which kills people every year.

Any policy designed to counter the growing Captagon trade must take into account its impact on local border communities.

Poor infrastructure and even poorer governance is a critical part of the story of healthcare in Iraq, but so too is the complex issue of the movement and supply of medicines.

This episode of Africa Aware examines the relationship between Ethiopia and Sudan.

How can we make sense of the transnational repercussions of war?

The Iran fuel shipment to Lebanon was significant not because of its size but because of what it signals about regional conflict.

Past events

Experts discuss recent developments in Niger and transnational conflict dynamics across the Sahel.

Panellists discuss the increasing regionalization of conflict in the Horn of Africa, and how it has become entangled with national interests.

Examining the interrelation between the economic situations in Syria and Lebanon.