Russia’s war on Ukraine has thrown Poland into the spotlight as an emerging but serious actor on European defence. Spending 4 per cent of its GDP on defence, it is one of the few European states that exceeds NATO’s 2 per cent target.
Located on NATO’s eastern flank and with living memory of life under Soviet rule, Poland is well aware of the threat Russia poses – to all of Europe – and has been warning allies for years. In recent months, this threat has become all the more apparent as European states fight increased disinformation efforts, acts of sabotage and arson attacks from Russia or Russia-sponsored operatives.
At the same time, much like the rest of Europe, Poland is having to plan for a medium- to long-term scenario whereby the US might reallocate resources to the Indo-Pacific as China ramps up its belligerent actions in the region. Such a shift will have implications for Polish security and defence.
The central tenets of Poland’s security policy posture are the Article 5 security guarantee provided through its NATO membership and its bilateral relationship with the US. Going forward, Poland will have to reconcile its historically transatlanticist approach with one that maximizes EU-led initiatives to help boost its defence industrial capacity.
Poland could become one of Europe’s most prominent security actors. Between 2022 and 2023, its defence budget grew in real terms by 46 per cent. In 2025, Warsaw plans a further 10 per cent increase in its defence budget. But for Poland to take on a leading role in European defence and security efforts, simply increasing defence spending will not be enough. It will also need to develop a long-term, strategic vision for defence, which guides procurement and capability development.
Poland’s revised 2017 military concept already acknowledged the importance of self-reliance and maximizing deterrence. It is now also increasingly turning to EU defence mechanisms.
Since Civic Coalition won the October 2023 elections, Poland has been one of the key states working to boost the importance of defence on the EU agenda. Prime Minister Donald Tusk has stressed the importance of joint EU defence spending, while Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski has advocated for expanding the EU’s European Rapid Development Capacity (RDC).
Poland’s contributions to European defence
Poland has hosted multinational NATO battlegroups since 2017 under Enhanced Forward Presence (eNP). The US leads the battlegroup in Poland, another sign of their strong bilateral ties and close cooperation in various international forums too. Poland also hosts a number of NATO bases, the newest addition being a US ballistic missile defence base under US command.
Poland has previously deployed troops as part of the EU battlegroups – most recently in 2023. In July 2024, Poland, together with Germany, deployed 2,500 of its troops as part of the RDC.
As a frontline state, Poland is already an active member of the EU Military Assistance Mission to Ukraine, training one-third of a total of 50,000 Ukrainian soldiers. The Polish city of Bydgoszcz will now be home to a joint force training centre, where Ukrainian forces will be trained alongside NATO forces.
On 8 July 2024, Poland and Ukraine signed a new bilateral security agreement, which guarantees new military assistance packages this year, training of Ukrainian armed forces and close military industry cooperation. The agreement also includes plans to move some Polish arms production to Ukraine, as well as working on an arrangement to intercept Russian missiles fired at Poland above Ukrainian territory – a step that would enhance deterrence on NATO’s eastern flank.
In the past, Poland was reticent about bolstering EU defence initiatives for fear for duplicating NATO structures. Under its previous government, Poland was slow to join EU defence initiatives such as Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), despite its high defence spending. Poland’s politicians also rowed over the failure of Polish national arms companies to secure EU funding for ammunition production.
More recently, this attitude has begun to shift and Poland has acknowledged the EU’s potential to complement NATO as a key pillar of European security. At the July 2024 NATO summit, Poland’s defence minister stressed the importance of harmonizing NATO and EU capabilities and recognized the latter’s increased contribution to financing defence industry and capabilities.
A rocky road ahead
But Poland also faces challenges. It struggles to retain military personnel and, despite ambitious recruitment plans, has not been able to fully staff its newly formed military units – meaning they have not helped increase operational capability.