Latin America Programme

The Keiko-Sánchez contest in this Sunday’s runoff election could tip the country into a deeper crisis. 

Beyond the drama of two rival populists, it is crime policy that may swing Brazil’s October election.

When ‘maximum’ economic pressure fails to bring regime change, and rhetoric has made diplomacy politically impossible, momentum towards military solutions will grow.

President Sheinbaum hopes that operations like that against ‘El Mencho’ and wider efforts to cooperate with the Trump administration’s demands will protect Mexico from more drastic US actions.

The Shield seeks to address serious security and narcotics issues. But a detail-light, ‘Trumpista-only’ alliance repeats past mistakes in Latin America. 

Cuban-American voters and US law will hinder the president’s freedom of action. But if Trump pushes too hard, he may create a serious problem.

Beyond restoring security, a push to rebuild Haiti’s society and create jobs is vital to any lasting solution. But who will fund such an effort, as the cycle of violence continues?

Dr Christopher Sabatini, Senior Research Fellow for Latin America, provided evidence on 3 February.

Even on his own terms, it is unlikely that attacks on any of these very different countries would be anything other than counter-productive for the president.

What does it mean for Trump’s popularity at home, for Ukraine and NATO, and for Venezuela’s neighbours in South and Central America?

Peace prizes rarely bring about change. But recognizing Maria Corina Machado can return international focus to an intractable regional issue.

A new UN Security Council resolution provides hope for Haitians and the multilateral system. But the February 2026 deadline for the dissolution of Haiti’s temporary government looms. 

A non-unanimous vote looks set to prolong Brazil’s agony over the insurrection of January 2023.

Bolivian voters have ended two decades of leftist rule. But the legacy of former president Evo Morales and his organized base will cast a long shadow.

Brazil wants to pursue an important multilateral agenda. But an expanded membership’s reaction to the war may tilt the group away from Rio’s long-standing goals.

Although there is a brief respite from the threat of tariffs, Mexican leaders must brace for tough times and focus on the long-term potential of the US–Mexico relationship.

The success of the US plan for a peaceful and prosperous Venezuela hinges on establishing and sustaining an effective, independent judicial system, and improving protection of private property, contract rights and human rights.

As Venezuela adjusts to the post-Maduro era, calls for elections are growing among the opposition and foreign governments. The urgent question is how to act quickly enough to take advantage of the new political situation without neglecting the unavoidably complex political and institutional preparatory reforms essential for ensuring credible elections.

Peru has the potential to play a major role in supply chains for the global energy transition. But its fractured politics is holding it back. Broad-based, inclusive dialogues between government, civil society and private sector interests are essential to build a more equitable and sustainable mining economy.