Arms control

A potted selection of reviews from our sister journal ‘International Affairs’, by its editorial coordinator Aroni Sarkar.

Both sides want to buy time. But other factors like midterm elections, Israel, and deep mistrust may intervene. 

The memorandum restores the prohibition on the use of force, seeks a binding resolution at the UN to endorse a ‘final deal,’ and relies on multilateral institutions to implement it. But are the US and Iran really returning to compliance with international law?

A potted selection of reviews from our sister journal ‘International Affairs’, by its managing editor, Hannah Patrick

The Iran war inhibited progress at the Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference. But so did P5 countries’ resistance to talking seriously about disarmament. 

But they can make important progress at their summit, by sharing their threat perceptions about the nuclear escalation risks brought by AI.

States may be tempted to pursue their own nuclear weapons as they seek deterrence against attacks amid uncertainty over US guarantees.

Amid the expiration of New START and fears of secret weapon testing, the world’s oldest arms reduction treaty is under strain, writes Iona Allan.

‘Dissuasion avancée’ is intended to give France’s partners a greater stake in nuclear deterrence, retain French command and control – and prevent proliferation.

Letting New START expire would signal that the world’s largest nuclear powers are abandoning restraint.

The threat of force is still very much on the table – as the president seeks to use pressure and unpredictability to turn Iranian weakness into a durable shift that benefits the US.

US President Trump and South Korea’s President Lee want to revive dialogue with North Korea. But an emboldened Kim Jong Un will want something in return.

A possible test of India’s K4 submarine-launched missile, and the presence of Chinese research ships, highlights how deterrence dynamics among nuclear-armed states are making the wider Indian Ocean region more dangerous.

Alarming events in nuclear proliferation, space security and hybrid warfare meant 2025 was a year in which the international security order deteriorated.

Escalating tensions between the world’s two largest nuclear powers come only months before the last remaining US–Russia nuclear arms control treaty expires.

Senior Research Fellow Dr Marion Messmer provided evidence to the committee on 22 October. 

The president’s accomplishment in bringing about a ceasefire in Gaza is welcome. But without diplomatic engagement, a cornered and wounded Iran could undermine longer term peace.

Riyadh may not want to rely solely on Washington for its defence, but it remains to be seen how robust its new security agreement with Islamabad will be in practice.

The deal provides no timeline for the resumption of inspections. And time is running out before UN sanctions ‘snap back’.

The breakdown of nuclear diplomacy, misleading talk of ‘limited’ nuclear war and a lack of public awareness have produced a dangerously heightened risk.

Trump intervened to help Israel’s military in Iran. Will he continue to let it operate freely in Gaza?

The aircraft will add redundancy to NATO’s DCA mission but will not improve UK deterrence – and come at the cost of other urgently needed systems.

Tehran has few good options, but the US should not overplay its hand, says Chatham House Director Bronwen Maddox in Amman.

Fading trust in international rules-based order was a common point of discussion at annual conference with the theme ‘Rewriting the rules of the world’.

Many in Tehran will urge a redoubled effort to develop nuclear weapons, after Israel’s attacks once again exposed the weakness of Iran’s conventional deterrence.

By integrating the technology into early warning systems, artificial intelligence could help prevent nuclear escalation – but only if the risks are better understood, warns Marion Messmer.

Britain’s nuclear capability depends on the US and France reserves its for national defence. How might they cooperate to bolster NATO’s ultimate ability to defend itself?

Fiona Bowler tells of the health problems faced by her grandfather and other servicemen who were exposed to radiation on Christmas Island, and their struggle for compensation.

Eighty years after the destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, we republish part of The World Today’s response to the first – and so far, only – use of nuclear weaponry in warfare.

Allies are less certain of the US’s ‘extended deterrence’ and some are pondering their own options. Ankit Panda explains the escalating dangers of a ‘third nuclear age’ – and how they might be avoided.

After the expiry of New START in early 2026, the prospects for formal arms control appear limited. But a costly new arms race can still be avoided.

Relations between North Korea and Russia have developed rapidly from a cash-for-weapons exchange to the deployment of North Korean troops. Their partnership now endangers regional and global security, and the US and its partners must take the threat seriously.

Behavioural insights have already been used to enhance the choice architecture in several areas of public policy. This research paper explores their potential for improving decision-making in nuclear weapons policy.

Russian nuclear threats have been highly successful in constraining Western responses to the war on Ukraine. Actual use of nuclear weapons by Russia is unlikely – but must be more firmly deterred.

Human processes and judgments can affect decisions in the nuclear chain of command. Complexity science offers policymakers pathways to reduce escalatory risk.

The EU and the UK need to take the lead in addressing long-standing concerns over lack of transparency and accountability in the use of armed drones, write Jessica Dorsey and Nilza Amaral.

In this paper, Steven Hill examines what the entry into force of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons should mean for the members of the NATO Alliance.

Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) alliances and proponents of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) are contrasted in this paper.

In the context of recent developments, this paper reviews US President Donald Trump’s Iran strategy and explores possible pathways to a new nuclear agreement with the Islamic Republic.

This paper focuses on Russia’s military posture in the Russian Arctic, demystifying Moscow’s military build-up, and explaining why the intentions are defensive.

The UK government’s words and deeds are still not synchronized. That is a recipe for trouble.

The rise of AI must be better managed in the near term in order to mitigate longer term risks and to ensure that AI does not reinforce existing inequalities.

States possessing nuclear weapons should be called upon to consider and publish the risks posed to cultural heritage, and their mitigation strategies, in their nuclear-weapons doctrines and policies.

Beyond restricting arms sales, the UN Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) can generate positive indirect impacts such as poverty reduction, improved health care and educational opportunities.

This paper analyses the role that the defence industry and international investors financing the production and trade of military goods can have in the implementation of the UN Arms Trade Treaty (ATT), and makes a case for why it is beneficial for countries across the world to join it.

Chatham House Report