US and the Americas Programme

Amid strident rhetoric and shifting targets, many observers have written off Trump’s tariff agenda either as a thoughtless time bomb that may wreck the global economy or as a negotiating tactic. But they are missing the bigger picture.

Criticism of US government inefficiency is justified. But rapid cuts made by the Department of Government Efficiency threaten US resilience and competitiveness. 

The administration’s policy works against its economic priorities and undermines America’s strengths. 

In a whirlwind start, the new US president has shaken America’s executive branch, European security, the liberal international order and global economics. Chatham House experts analyse the impact – and what comes next.

Washington hosted a week of relatively friendly talks. But discussions of European security were not productive.

The Trump administration’s approach to its alliances has shaken Europe. Indo-Pacific partners also have cause to be worried.

Although there is a brief respite from the threat of tariffs, Mexican leaders must brace for tough times and focus on the long-term potential of the US–Mexico relationship.

Canada will work hard to resolve the dispute permanently – but the continuing tariffs threat will create pressure to reduce reliance on US trade.

As Trump takes aim at global norms and institutions, the question of what parts of the post-Cold War order can be saved – and for whom – requires urgent attention.

US use of sanctions has ballooned. Yet Venezuela shows the failure both of ‘maximum pressure’ tactics and attempts to leverage sanctions for ambitious goals. A review is urgently needed.

How Trump and Congress address looming fiscal challenges will have far-reaching consequences that could affect the foundations of US economic power.

If Trump’s activity is meant to bend existing alliances to US advantage, Europe should deal. If he genuinely intends to undermine national sovereignty, a tough line will be necessary.

Experts from across Chatham House look at the key challenges and achievements of the 39th president of the United States.

World leaders must engage with the new president’s view of America’s priorities and accept that the US has changed.

A narrow win for either side could make things worse. The rest of the world should be prepared for a disruptive transition.

As US public opinion hardens, the Democratic party takes a tougher stance, and Donald Trump proposes mass deportations, Latin American leaders note a lack of long-term policy.

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump could not be more different when it comes to trade, despite a changed economic landscape.

Pollsters say domestic issues will decide the contest in November. Yet the debate showed that America’s international standing and its future global role are still central to this election.

Harris’s energizing candidacy means her words on Gaza are being carefully scrutinized by those hopeful for a new direction. But policy change is unlikely before the election.

Tim Walz has been embraced by both moderates and progressives in the Democratic party, but what impact will Kamala Harris’s VP pick have on the outcome of the race?

Washington’s sanctions relief helped encourage Maduro to hold elections; but the US could not make them free and fair. Now what?

Were she elected president in November, the vice president would likely oversee significant continuity with Biden’s foreign policy – except, perhaps, on Gaza.

A competitive election may unseat an authoritarian government that has ruled for a quarter century. But post-election upheaval is a near certainty.

Biden repaired damage to US leadership, delivered economic recovery, and rallied support for Ukraine. The Democratic Party must now unite to protect these achievements.

The former president has united Republicans under a MAGA agenda and a path to victory. But this extraordinary election may soon shift trajectory.

President Biden struggled to reassure an ambivalent public while Donald Trump played fast and loose with the facts.

Passing his first reform bill is a major victory for the president, but continuing economic pain may yet erode his remarkable popular support.

Regardless of whether the next US administration is led by Biden or Trump, two key foreign policy asks will be made of the next UK government.

The new president will prioritize working relations with the US on issues like migration, trade and fentanyl. But proactive engagement beyond Washington is also a necessity.

A generational divide in the US is pushing Biden towards pressuring Tel-Aviv. But the ICC’s intervention brings pressure from the right. The president must stay focused on bringing peace to Gaza and the region.

Peru has the potential to play a major role in supply chains for the global energy transition. But its fractured politics is holding it back. Broad-based, inclusive dialogues between government, civil society and private sector interests are essential to build a more equitable and sustainable mining economy.

This paper assesses plans for investment in a sustainable economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic, and examines how such efforts could transform international development cooperation.

The technical capabilities of facial recognition have been embraced by law enforcement agencies. Going forward, governments must act to safeguard citizens’ rights.

In 2021 G7 leaders pledged to build back a better world. They now need to redouble their efforts to make sure that this ambition is fulfilled.

Venezuela’s recovery from economic collapse and the future prosperity of its citizens depend on the reconstruction of its crisis-ridden electricity system.

This paper offers a public policy ‘toolkit’ for governments in the US and Europe to support firms in securing resilient and sustainable supply chains

Important political shifts in 2021 could bring greater clarity on Germany’s changing China policy, no matter who succeeds Angela Merkel as chancellor, writes Noah Barkin.

This paper examines broad legal and institutional reform proposals for Venezuela’s oil and gas sector, and five countries it competes with in global markets.

The authors of this paper consider the most pressing foreign policy challenges for the next US president, and examine how the outcome of the 2020 election will affect these.

A modernized and fully functioning WTO is more essential than ever. This paper makes the case for transatlantic cooperation as a necessary condition for reform.

Canadian attitudes towards China have undergone a dramatic shift – from ambivalence to distrust – since the two countries became locked in a diplomatic dispute in late 2018. This paper argues that these hardened sentiments are unlikely to dissipate and Canada–China relations seem to have entered a new, warier phase.

This paper examines the risks of greater strategic competition as well as potential solutions for mitigating the impacts of the US–China economic confrontation.

This briefing argues that China’s rise has worrying implications for the liberal order and explores how this will affect the transatlantic relationship.

Many middle powers have been warning of the dangers inherent in the decline of the liberal international order. The time has come for these countries to translate their warnings into concerted action.

This paper recommends a framework for strengthening US–EU trade relations and achieving successful trade talks in the current era of protectionism. 

Despite significant financial expenditure and thousands of lives lost, a fundamental shift in policy remains unimaginable at present.

The rise of AI must be better managed in the near term in order to mitigate longer term risks and to ensure that AI does not reinforce existing inequalities.

If a new trade policy framework can be developed, Trump’s presidency could offer a chance to move the debate forward and actually strengthen global trade.

The impact of the rapid expansion of the commercial market on autonomous systems development cannot be overstated.