Russia and Eurasia Programme

Central Asia is adept at hedging between Moscow and the West. Much of its success lies in adhering to a single maxim: tell each side what it wants to hear.

If Donald Trump believed he could persuade Vladimir Putin to sign up to a comprehensive ceasefire in Ukraine, he is learning the hard way: Russia is interested in peace, but only on its terms.

In a whirlwind start, the new US president has shaken America’s executive branch, European security, the liberal international order and global economics. Chatham House experts analyse the impact – and what comes next.

The millions who fled Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 are now facing pressure to return. Olga Tokariuk speaks to some caught in a difficult dilemma.

Following the extraordinary events of 28 February, Europe needs unity and resolve to defend Ukraine and help repair Kyiv’s relations with Washington.

Speakers at a recent Chatham House conference discuss how European states can act to repel Russian aggression.

To the Trump administration, pleasing Russia looks like it solves major problems. But experience shows that those who try, live to regret it.

The result in the presidential elections was all too predictable. But has a power transition already begun? And can the West prevent continuing Kremlin domination in the country?

Many voters intend to shun this weekend’s presidential election in Belarus, according to research carried out by Chatham House.

A ceasefire that leaves Ukraine unprotected would only provide a pause before a wider war. Washington and Kyiv must agree viable security guarantees before any negotiations with Putin begin.

Experts from across Chatham House look at the key challenges and achievements of the 39th president of the United States.

Events in Syria have undermined Moscow’s claims to be a reliable security guarantor. But Russia’s position in the country remains secondary to the war in Ukraine.

Experts discuss the state of Western policy toward Belarus, how the war in Ukraine has changed perceptions of Belarus, and what more the West can do.

The Kremlin is signalling that it is ready to talk to the incoming US administration. But Trump may find Russia’s terms make him look unacceptably weak.

An internship at Chatham House offers an invaluable learning experience through a six-month placement in one of our teams.

As tens of thousands take to the streets to protest the election results, Georgia faces a familiar crisis – with a few key differences.

The two countries face unusually consequential elections where their populations must choose between moving unambiguously towards the West – or towards closer ties with Russia.

The debate about Ukraine’s use of US long-range missiles illustrates the broader strategic divide between Washington and Kyiv. Despite his efforts, Zelenskyy’s US visit did not help narrow this gap.

Arrested officials are serving as scapegoats following battlefield failures in Russia’s war on Ukraine.

The head of Chatham House’s Ukraine Forum reveals how her fellow Ukrainians are preparing for winter, why she chose a career in international relations and why her son would love to live in Kyiv.

Anna Morgan profiles two cash-strapped projects struggling to offer mental health support to soldiers returning from the front line.

Like other high-profile weapons systems, the impact of F-16s may be curbed by limited numbers and US restrictions on their use.

The surprise raid has put talk of concessions to Moscow on hold. Kyiv hopes it will also defuse fears of Russian escalation.

The prisoner exchange is a victory for diplomacy, but we should not assume that justice has prevailed.

There was no invitation for Kyiv to join the alliance. But there was agreement on what Ukraine needs now to ensure Russia’s war fails.

Even as Russia bombs Ukrainian cities with murderous effect, Moscow is on the diplomatic offensive. Putin hopes to exploit division among Kyiv’s allies – but is also fearful of a Trump presidency.

The NATO summit in Washington is an opportunity for Western leaders to push for innovative deterrence mechanisms against Russia’s war machine.

Candidates to be Iran’s next president are quick to play down the special friendship that was sought by president Raisi.

Speculation that Dyumin could succeed Putin has been considerable. But there is no reason to suppose Russia’s president will signal his intentions regarding his replacement.

While all eyes are on the battlefield, without recovery finance and key domestic reforms, Ukrainian resilience is at risk.

There are four possible outcomes for Russia’s war on Ukraine: ‘long war’, ‘frozen conflict’, ‘victory for Ukraine’, and ‘defeat for Ukraine’. This paper outlines how these scenarios may take shape, the factors influencing them and the consequences for Ukraine.

Russia seeks to rebuild and modernize its armed forces, both to make up for combat losses in Ukraine and to apply lessons from that theatre. The outcome of this project matters deeply for Western security.

This paper assesses Russia’s cyber and information operations against Ukraine, considers why Ukrainian responses have often been so effective, and outlines potential lessons for other states.

The war is making the challenges of climate change harder to overcome, both in Ukraine and worldwide.

This report makes the case for dramatically increased Western military assistance to Ukraine, and counsels against concessions to Russia.

Ukraine’s government, CSOs and international partners must work to ensure the skills, energy and ambition of the country’s citizens are channelled into transformative recovery planning and delivery.

How might a post-Putin Russia look to the outside world? Duncan Allan presents some potential outcomes based on a scenario of a Russian defeat in Ukraine.

Belarus – seen as a ‘vassal state’ of Russia – presents challenges for Western policymakers seeking to end repressions and support its pro-democracy movement.

Russian nuclear threats have been highly successful in constraining Western responses to the war on Ukraine. Actual use of nuclear weapons by Russia is unlikely – but must be more firmly deterred.

Russia’s increasingly militarized approach to polar politics threatens to end the era of low tension in the Arctic and to undermine the stability of the Antarctic Treaty System.

To forge an effective Russia policy post-Brexit, the UK needs a clear, coherent Russia strategy based on a realistic assessment of its own power and influence.

The UK’s current approach to anti-kleptocracy damages its rule of law, its standing as an opponent of international corruption and the integrity of important domestic institutions.

There is potential for complementary agendas in French and German approaches to Russia, but the Franco-German ‘motor’ will not be enough to push through an EU-wide Russia policy.

Persistent past behaviours by the Russian state offer clues to how it can be deterred from hostile action against the West in the future. But this is only possible if the West shows both the will and the ability to defend itself.

Innovations in military technology are enhancing and enabling Russia’s way of war. How should NATO and its allies respond?

Russia’s strategic deterrent balances the capabilities of its nuclear arsenal with a growing range of non-nuclear forms of deterrence, writes Valeriy Akimenko

The resilience of Ukraine’s system of crony capitalism is the underlying obstacle to the development of fully functioning democratic institutions and rule of law, writes John Lough

This report deconstructs 16 of the most prevalent myths that shape contemporary Western thinking on Russia, and explains their detrimental impact on the design and execution of policy.

Ukraine’s media sector faces a wide range of challenges – not least the influence of oligarchs and politicians. This paper explores efforts to improve professional standards and public trust.

Ukraine’s cultural and creative sectors have flourished since the Euromaidan revolution, helping the country to counter divisive Russian narratives and develop a greater sense of national identity.

Although Russia wants to position its Far Eastern region as a logistics hub for closer links with Asia and Europe, there are inadequacies in the infrastructure.

Despite Russia’s aggression, economic pressure and information war, Ukraine has managed to preserve its statehood and democratic reforms.

Instead of trying to resolve an unresolvable contradiction, Western policymakers should acknowledge the starkness of the Minsk conundrum.

How is it possible for the directors of the Russian economy to pursue an orthodox stabilization policy and yet achieve so little to stem growth slowdown?

A partial handover of political power through an orchestrated transition takes Kazakhstan into uncharted territory. Will it be able to pursue modernization and reform, and break from its authoritarian past?

This paper outlines the achievements and shortcomings of decentralization and highlights a window of opportunity for completing the first phase of reforms. 

This paper focuses on Russia’s military posture in the Russian Arctic, demystifying Moscow’s military build-up, and explaining why the intentions are defensive.

In societies struggling to democratize, social uprisings are an opportunity for new political elites. This paper examines factors for political renewal.

This paper explores the evolution of the dilemmas in Armenia’s foreign policy since the 1990s. Its primary aim is to offer an informed background for further discussions, beyond the conventional and stereotypical views that dominate policy thinking on this issue in the West as well as in Armenia.

This paper reviews the evolution of Azerbaijan’s foreign policy with regard to Russia and the West, looks at the diplomatic imperatives surrounding the Nagorny Karabakh conflict in more detail, and sets out recommendations for how to mitigate risks for Azerbaijan’s relations with Russia.