Middle East and North Africa Programme

The country offers a bridge to Western markets for Chinese makers of electric vehicles. President Xi’s visit shows how important China regards its domination of the industry.

Syria’s president might be toppled, or a new civil war could break out with Abu Mohammed Al-Jawlani’s HTS forces. But another ceasefire seems the most likely outcome.

Russia and Iran-backed militias are moving to prop up Bashar al-Assad, as opposition forces advance. But a political solution remains the only way to end the cycle of violence.

The Israeli military’s unprecedented use of brute force has changed the strategic environment, ending Tehran’s hopes of bleeding Israel through linked conflicts.

A second Trump presidency poses serious risks to Jordan, not least because of growing concern the US could support an Israeli annexation of the West Bank.

Transnational conflict in the Middle East is fuelled by both ‘legal’ and ‘illegal’ trade. Mapping these cross-border dynamics can help understand and address violent conflict.

Gulf states will continue the move to regional reconciliation but on Iran and Israel–Palestine, will look to reset the rules of engagement.

An internship at Chatham House offers an invaluable learning experience through a six-month placement in one of our teams.

The killing may aid Hamas recruitment – but it will not make agreement with Fatah any easier to achieve.

Israel has larger ambitions for Gaza beyond the Hamas leader’s death and the armed group is still asserting its influence despite its degradation.

The Egyptian army is a formidable force lacking air superiority capabilities to match its size and ambitions. China understood this predicament and offered to help.

Harris and Trump look set to continue US deprioritization of the region, but they would do better to enlist the support of their partners.

Eliminating Hamas and Hezbollah leaders will not on their own bring peace. Tehran’s malign influence must be countered.

A year after 7 October, a viable alternative to the Netanyahu government is needed – alongside international support for those willing to invest in peace.

Rather than investing in a failed statehood project, governments can empower Palestinians through other channels – and counter Israel’s impunity to suppress them.

Israel’s killing of Nasrallah has dealt a devastating blow to Hezbollah. Where it goes from here is highly uncertain.

The loss of Nasrallah is devastating for Hezbollah but Israel might be overplaying its hand. A diplomatic solution requires Washington to exercise its leverage on Tel Aviv.

Jordan’s parliamentary election on 10 September promises to be the most consequential vote since democracy was reintroduced to the kingdom in 1989.

Despite escalations, a full-blown conflict would be bad for both sides. But all this brinkmanship is diverting attention from Palestine.

A path out of the conflict is only possible if international actors prioritize Palestinian agency over Israeli control.

The clampdown represents a new phase of authoritarian rule that will hinder the peace process and inhibit aid to ordinary Yemenis.

But they move Israel and the ‘axis of resistance’ closer to a wider war – a conflict that each side knows it cannot win.

For Palestinian factions a new agreement is more about short term ideological and political priorities than establishing a genuine united front.

Parliamentary elections are a travesty, and Syrians know it. But the vote plays an important legitimizing role for the Assad regime.

The low turnout in the election of Iran’s first reformist president since 2005 shows an unprecedented disconnect between state and society. To advance his agenda, he must navigate the conservative establishment.

Neither side wants a war but both are rewriting the rules of engagement.

The UK needs to narrow its policy goals to concentrate its resources on stabilizing the region’s unresolved conflicts.

Confrontation with the courts shores up Netanyahu’s supporter base – even as Israel’s international isolation deepens.

Any security deal would have significant implications for both countries and the Middle East. It deserves more serious attention than it has received so far.

Explaining the history of democracy in Turkey, prospects for its future trajectory and the key factors behind the current crisis in the country’s democracy.

Despite legislative efforts and cooperation with the EU, migration through Niger and Libya to Europe has grown significantly in recent years. This paper examines the transnational drivers of this phenomenon, including insecurity in Libya and the mobility economy in Niger.

Exploitation and abuse of Nigerians and other people moving have become a profitable revenue source for armed groups in Libya. Tackling this situation will require both a transnational approach and policy tools beyond those traditionally associated with conflict response.

This paper explores how the remote border district of Sinjar in Iraq became a transnational conflict hub that threatens wider security in the Middle East.

Given the continuing existence of rival political institutions and a competitive and divided security sector in Libya, discussion of disarmament, demobilization and reintegration is often viewed as premature. But while there is no blueprint for DDR across Libya as a whole, there is already scope for planning according to local contexts.

This paper explores how mechanisms nominally designed to deliver democratic and accountable governance in Iraq often fail to do so in practice. It offers a plan to tackle the problem by connecting and mobilizing networks of reformers across state and society.

After decades of fragmented expansion, Algeria’s social protection system is under financial strain. With rising demand across the region, strategic reforms are needed to boost fiscal space in order to improve social welfare outcomes for the country’s citizens.

A historic opportunity exists to promote multilateral cooperation in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, building on recent political de-escalation. With the right design, a new forum could succeed where previous initiatives have failed.

Political settlements in Iraq, Lebanon and Libya have long relied on deals between elites to ensure ‘stability’, but the resulting power-sharing systems fuel corruption and have led to disastrous governance failings. To improve the daily lives of citizens under these settlements, international policymakers must focus on increasing the accountability of elites.

More cohesive international engagement is needed to support stability in Ethiopia and Sudan and resolve damaging cross-border disputes that jeopardize security and development across the Horn of Africa.

With consistent and long-term support from the US, the Abraham Accords could have a transformative impact on Middle East economic cooperation and regional security.

This paper explores the ever-shifting identity and political strategy of Iraqi cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and offers a sociological analysis of his voter base.

Political and religious elites are increasingly capturing Iraq’s cultural heritage for sectarian and commercial purposes, reducing its role as a public good and further dividing Iraqi society.

This paper examines why successive updates to Iraq’s electoral laws have failed to reform the dynamics of government formation.

For Hezbollah, having hybrid status is ideal for maintaining its objective of possessing and exercising power without responsibility to the Lebanese people, writes Lina Khatib.

Corruption has led to the near collapse of the state in Lebanon. While the introduction of legal measures to tackle this issue is a positive step, the effectiveness of these reforms remains uncertain.

This paper explores how political parties compete and cooperate for power in formal institutions in the Iraqi state, notably through appointing senior civil servants to do their bidding.

This paper examines the rise of the Libyan Arab Armed Forces (LAAF) and whether it still has a role in Libya’s future.

The ‘state’ in Iraq and Lebanon is not confined to official structures, and should be understood instead as the embodiment of power relationships between diverse actors such as political parties, armed groups and societal leaders.

Getting to a security framework for the Middle East needs the buy-in of all regional actors, enabled by critical external partners. The time to act is now, argue Sanam Vakil and Neil Quilliam.

Future reform efforts in Iraq must be guided by strategies that better understand the nature of PMF networks and their links to state power structures.

This paper assesses the ongoing constitutional battle over the devolution of powers in Iraq and looks at the possibility of a long-term solution.

Power dynamics within and between de facto authorities and the Syrian regime have allowed corrupt networks and profiteers to emerge.

This paper sheds light on Abu Dhabi’s ambitions to play a key role in shaping political and governance structures across the region.

This briefing guides policymakers, international financial institutions, and development agencies in designing and implementing public sector reform programmes.

This paper aims to assist the region’s local authorities, and their key foreign backers, in understanding how transitional justice can provide alternative avenues for holding local ISIS members to account while contributing to the healing of communities.

There is and will continue to be an edge of rivalry in Egypt’s relations with the dominant Gulf Arab powers. This paper will focus primarily on the Egypt–Gulf relationship during the Sisi era.

This paper explores armed group–community relations in Libya and the sources of revenue that have allowed armed groups to grow in power and influence.

How would the states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) respond to a serious cyber incident? This could be a global ransomware event, a critical infrastructure incident targeted at the energy sector, or an attack on government departments. This paper examines cyber resilience in the states of the GCC. 

Over the past two decades, China has increased its presence in North Africa in terms of trade and investment. This paper looks at China’s policy within the context of its Africa and Middle East policies to better understand its approach to Morocco and Tunisia.

This paper examines the benefits of a ‘synergistic’ approach to North African cooperation.