Future Dynamics in the Gulf (2016-2019)

The 41st GCC Summit marks a turning point in the Qatar crisis. However, if not repaired, the issues that led to the crisis could easily resurface.

This paper sheds light on Abu Dhabi’s ambitions to play a key role in shaping political and governance structures across the region.

In the context of recent developments, this paper reviews US President Donald Trump’s Iran strategy and explores possible pathways to a new nuclear agreement with the Islamic Republic.

To have any chance of success, post-conflict governance models for Iraq and Libya must acknowledge ‘hybrid’ armed groups and incorporate them in rebuilding the state, but focus on improving their accountability.

New research reveals that, despite the Vision 2030 plan, the majority still expect a public sector job for life. But a shift in approach to education could change that.

Behind the entrenched political distrust, regional institutions are devising workarounds to contain the impact of the dispute between Qatar and other Gulf states.

Since 2017 Qatar has been boycotted by the Arab Quartet. This paper examines the dynamics of the dispute and identifies elements required to reach a solution.

This week Agnes and Ben meet with experts on China’s economy and the history of UK relations with the Gulf states.

The ruling family wants to move on from the instability of the Arab Spring, but has taken no concrete steps towards addressing political grievances.

Britain’s diplomatic weight prevailed this time, but the old relationship is changing.

Agnes discusses green building projects in Jordan with Glada Lahn, while Ben speaks to Paul Brannagan about Qatar’s soft power experiment in hosting the 2022 World Cup.

The US and European governments must move beyond rhetoric and implement sustained diplomatic measures to persuade Riyadh that political reform is its only option.

The Saudi crown prince has tried to mitigate doubts about his impulsiveness with openness to investment. Now that balancing act is breaking down.

As it has done in the past, Tehran will leverage this latest crisis to shore up its regional position.

The disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi underscores the crown prince’s intolerance of dissent – and should be condemned by Western governments.

Iran’s relations with the Gulf states are guided by opportunism rather than an overarching strategy.

Agnes examines why the vast wealth of Saudi Arabia, Oman, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait makes them especially vulnerable to cybercrime, and Ben discusses a groundbreaking project to teach creative writing in the Shatila refugee camp in Lebanon.

Saudi Arabia may have prevailed at the latest OPEC meeting, but its biggest challenge when it comes to balancing production and prices is domestic.

Revision of GCC cybercrime laws is urgently required, and is essential for better security, for a better society and for better civil liberties.

Agnes discusses machine learning and AI regulation with Jacob Parakilas, while Ben tackles Saudi social reforms with Jane Kinninmont.

Neither Qatar nor the boycotting countries have suffered enough from the dispute to feel forced to compromise.

Saudi Arabia looks to the future by curbing the mutawaeen, writes Najah Al-Osaimi

David Roberts charts the effects of low oil prices and regional conflicts on Gulf politics

The answer lies in wider fears about recognizing the concept of refugeehood.

From the point of view of a Saudi policy-maker, the country, the region and the world look to be increasingly complex places

The melting pot behind a bustling city with international ambitions

The kingdom lifts the veil

SAUDI ARABIAPopulation: 26.5m65 years and over: 3%Life expectancy at birth: 74.3 yearsPopulation in 2050: 58.24m

‘We have a prediction problem. We love to predict things – and we aren’t very good at it.’ These are the words of the statistician superstar Nate Silver, one of the few men in the world who actually does not have a prediction problem: he correctly forecast the results of the 2012 US presidential election in all 50 states. Each December experts are asked to predict events around the world for the coming year. Many of these are blindingly obvious – or just plain wrong. According to Silver, one of the reasons for this is the Web, which allows bad ideas to circulate until they become conventional wisdom.In the following pages Chatham House experts look at some of the notable surprises of 2012, and ask why no one predicted them, and what we can learn.

Saudi Arabia’s first female film director has made an enchanting movie, Wadjda, about a girl and her bicycle. She talks to Libby Powell about changing the system from the inside