Americas

The US decision to extend sanctions has upped the ante in its campaign against the ICC. The Court’s supporters must decide how to respond, perhaps now it is time to put all options on the table.

US voters are linking economic concerns to the Trump administration’s foreign policy choices. This is bad news for Republicans.

The case of Arizona shows that governments must stop treating water as merely an environmental issue.

In this week’s episode of Independent Thinking, our experts discuss the expected shift to the right in Spain, France, Germany and Brazil’s upcoming elections.

If Flávio Bolsonaro wins Brazil’s presidential run-off, he will likely roll back Lula’s deforestation regulations. But the country’s low-carbon transition will be harder to reverse.

A detailed, reciprocal, and verifiable process is essential to ensure that any agreement holds.

Polls suggest Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives as American voters are dissatisfied with President Trump and his policies.

A Bolsonaro victory would mean Trump-aligned governments dominate South America.

In this week’s episode of Independent Thinking, our experts discuss the Trump-Xi summit in Washington and the increasing competition between the two superpowers.

Denmark used its soft power to rally support and took the dispute out of the limelight – addressing underlying US interests instead of President Trump’s unacceptable public position.

The US and China both face serious domestic strains. As Trump and Xi meet this week to discuss trade, AI and Taiwan, neither side should mistake the other’s weaknesses for strategic decline.

The deeper relationship proposed by Carney and von der Leyen could send a powerful geopolitical message. But can agreement be reached without antagonizing EU candidate countries? 

The current focus on ‘global imbalances’ is too easily used by policymakers as a smokescreen for their own domestic failings.

Daily power cuts, fuel shortages and empty shop shelves are part of everyday life for Cubans as they struggle with the worst economic crisis in decades. Photographer Daniel Desormais visited an island bracing itself for America’s next move.

The administration’s efforts to undermine confidence in the US electoral system could spark a political crisis in November – with consequences for the 2028 presidential race and beyond, writes Bruce Stokes.

Sebastian Mallaby, the author of a recent book on Google DeepMind, tells Mike Higgins about the urgent need for regulation, why Europe will have to follow the United States’ lead and the way to talk to China about the technology’s safety issues. Listen also to the full podcast of their conversation.

Anthropic’s warning should be taken seriously – but not as cover for entrenching US labs or escalating rivalry with Beijing.

In an extended edition of our weekly Independent Thinking podcast, we look back over a quarter of a century to examine the longer-term consequences of 9/11.

Sustaining the force is essential. But so too are funding commitments to restore the health and education services Haitians desperately need.

The Democrats are projected to make big gains in November’s midterm elections. But this will not necessarily constrain President Trump.

US–Canada trade war will test not only economic strength but also political will. On the latter, Canada may have an advantage.

A US crisis is very likely to be associated with a capital outflow, rather than a capital inflow, with the result that the dollar could weaken substantially against other currencies.

More than half of critical minerals worldwide are located under or near Indigenous lands. Community protests have interrupted production, so the business case for taking human rights seriously is becoming stronger and stronger.

Tensions with the US and Alberta are leading Prime Minister Carney to back new oil and gas infrastructure. Smoothing the path to electrification would be a better use of public funds.

Two initial meetings sent a worrying signal and Venezuelans are frustrated. The US must apply real pressure for talks to make progress.

In this week’s episode of Independent Thinking, our experts explore the US-China race for AI leadership and the likelihood of an AI crash

The Trump administration has pushed through another round of tariffs. While they are being challenged in the courts, unpredictable and costly US trade policy is here to stay.

Riyadh’s argument to Washington is that a close partnership should not be contingent on membership of the Abraham Accords, when it is playing a growing role in regional security.

Washington and Beijing spent the week arguing about whose models we should use. But the week’s most important news was about what a model did.

Iran has survived war with the US by adapting its doctrine. The US must also change its thinking.

A new survey of 1,332 Haitians reveals aspirations for better education and healthcare in addition to improvements in security, as well as opposition to amnesty for gang members, a desire for early elections, and suspicion of any potential political bargain that could enable gang leaders to enter government.

This report proposes the creation of a permanent alliance of market-oriented economies – a ‘third pole’ in the global economy – to preserve and improve the core principles and rules underpinning economic openness, absence of coercion and pursuit of mutual benefit.

Gang violence and state weakness continue to undermine security in Haiti, and the expiry of the transitional government’s mandate in February 2026 could bring further instability. This paper proposes a programme of reforms that could start to restore security and public services.

With the new US national security strategy demanding greater burden-sharing by Japan and South Korea, officials and policymakers in all three countries must focus on delivering tangible benefits if they are to sustain their trilateral partnership.

As the Trump administration turns away from the US-led post-war international order, how are other states envisioning ‘international order’ and what are their plans for adapting to new realities?

Peru has the potential to play a major role in supply chains for the global energy transition. But its fractured politics is holding it back. Broad-based, inclusive dialogues between government, civil society and private sector interests are essential to build a more equitable and sustainable mining economy.

More cohesive international engagement is needed to support stability in Ethiopia and Sudan and resolve damaging cross-border disputes that jeopardize security and development across the Horn of Africa.

With consistent and long-term support from the US, the Abraham Accords could have a transformative impact on Middle East economic cooperation and regional security.

Global trade continues to face multiple challenges as the risks of deepening tensions between the US and China, along with those of an escalation of Russia’s war on Ukraine, weigh on economies.

This paper assesses plans for investment in a sustainable economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic, and examines how such efforts could transform international development cooperation.

The Trade and Technology Council (TTC) has become the main platform for US–EU trade and tech cooperation. But the US and the EU must turn ambitions into tangible outcomes if the TTC is to tackle significant global issues.

Europe and the US recognize that their policies and strategies on the Indo-Pacific need to be more coherent. Existing structures such as the G7 and the Quad could become key forums for enhanced cooperation.

The technical capabilities of facial recognition have been embraced by law enforcement agencies. Going forward, governments must act to safeguard citizens’ rights.

In 2021 G7 leaders pledged to build back a better world. They now need to redouble their efforts to make sure that this ambition is fulfilled.

Human processes and judgments can affect decisions in the nuclear chain of command. Complexity science offers policymakers pathways to reduce escalatory risk.

Venezuela’s recovery from economic collapse and the future prosperity of its citizens depend on the reconstruction of its crisis-ridden electricity system.

The international community must partner effectively with Brazilian stakeholders to conserve the Amazonian forest and foster sustainable economic development.

The use of forest biomass for energy is growing rapidly, but existing EU and UK policies ignore its contribution to increased carbon emissions.

This paper offers a public policy ‘toolkit’ for governments in the US and Europe to support firms in securing resilient and sustainable supply chains

Important political shifts in 2021 could bring greater clarity on Germany’s changing China policy, no matter who succeeds Angela Merkel as chancellor, writes Noah Barkin.

This paper examines broad legal and institutional reform proposals for Venezuela’s oil and gas sector, and five countries it competes with in global markets.

This paper examines current and potential areas of climate change cooperation between the US, the EU and China.

China’s expansion into the Indo-Pacific is meeting growing resistance from a range of countries that are looking to further their own interests in the region.

Quantum technologies represent significant scientific progress, however, security concerns continue to hinder deeper international cooperation.

The paper proposes a definition of sustainable procurement so goods, services, works and utilities achieve value for money on a life-cycle basis.

The authors of this paper consider the most pressing foreign policy challenges for the next US president, and examine how the outcome of the 2020 election will affect these.

This paper explores the impacts of large-scale mining on forests, within this wider context of transition.

A modernized and fully functioning WTO is more essential than ever. This paper makes the case for transatlantic cooperation as a necessary condition for reform.

Canadian attitudes towards China have undergone a dramatic shift – from ambivalence to distrust – since the two countries became locked in a diplomatic dispute in late 2018. This paper argues that these hardened sentiments are unlikely to dissipate and Canada–China relations seem to have entered a new, warier phase.

As internet governance issues emerge in the wake of innovations such as the Internet of Things and advanced artificial intelligence, there is an urgent need for the EU and US to establish a common, positive multi-stakeholder vision for regulating and governing the internet.