Defence and security

As fighting escalates in Tigray and neighbouring areas, there are fears that Ethiopia’s internal instability could spill over into the wider Horn of Africa region.

A detailed, reciprocal, and verifiable process is essential to ensure that any agreement holds.

Denmark used its soft power to rally support and took the dispute out of the limelight – addressing underlying US interests instead of President Trump’s unacceptable public position.

Gulf Arab states increasingly view Israel as the main obstacle to progress on the peace plan – and may hope for an opening after Israel’s October elections.

Eight candidates are vying to succeed António Guterres, but if the next United Nations’ chief can’t reassert its role in major conflicts, the organization risks becoming a ‘cumbersome appendage’, diplomats tell Stéphanie Fillion.

A potted selection of reviews from our sister journal ‘International Affairs’, by its editorial coordinator Aroni Sarkar.

When the fighting ends, America’s predominance in the region is likely to be eroded as Iran reasserts itself, the Arab monarchies reconsider their security – and China sees an opportunity. By Mohsen Milani.

Sustaining the force is essential. But so too are funding commitments to restore the health and education services Haitians desperately need.

As geopolitical competition heats up in the Arctic, security and science must go hand in hand.

The continent is increasingly vulnerable to arson attacks, while climate disasters are diverting militaries from other threats. Policymakers must respond with a security-based approach to climate change.

The move may lead to more pressure on Israel to implement Trump’s 20-point plan, but both sides are likely to keep dragging out the process while avoiding any real commitments.

In this week’s episode of Independent Thinking, our experts discuss what President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s reshuffle means for Ukraine’s war strategy.

Recent air defence pledges won’t deliver interceptors for years. Europe could help now by providing fighter cover, or by delivering more offensive weapons. Will it act? 

The country’s purchase of Russian air defences has prevented it from acquiring US F-35 fighter jets. The UAE could face similar issues if it purchases the systems.

The dismissal of Mykhailo Fedorov – the man behind Ukraine’s successful drone campaign against Russia – has sparked protests across Ukraine and turned into a political crisis for Zelenskyy.

Libyan anti-corruption investigations reveal the limitations of a US push to reunify the country without improving governance.

The panel explored the key issues shaping European defence today in the face of hybrid threats from Russia.

Just the day after the 2026 NATO Summit in Ankara, the first session of Chatham House’s 2026 London Conference addressed the future of alliance.

In this week’s episode of the Independent Thinking podcast, our experts discuss the outcomes of this year’s NATO summit and what it means for the future of the transatlantic relationship.

Following this week’s Ankara NATO summit, General Sir Richard Barrons told the Chatham House London Conference that European countries must act to re-establish deterrence in the light of US drawdown in Europe.

Erosion of public trust in US leadership and the growing Russian threat are opportunities for European NATO allies to build public support for fast and decisive action on defence.

Disagreements over the Iran war and defence procurement threaten to turn the annual summit into another theatre for division and distract from the threat from Russia.

A tortuous process has produced a plan that does not set a clear path towards meeting the UK’s defence expenditure targets. But it includes many elements which will make the UK a more attractive collaborative partner for NATO allies.

The Defence Investment Plan recommits the UK to a national conversation on defence and security. The failure to deliver one so far undermines public trust and leaves the UK vulnerable to hybrid threats.

Clearing the busy international waterway of mines is a complex challenge that will take time and international coordination. But it could help to build trust between the US and Iran during negotiations.

Both sides want to buy time. But other factors like midterm elections, Israel, and deep mistrust may intervene. 

Whoever is leading the country must deal with a fundamental shift in the UK’s most important relations – with the US and Europe – in an increasingly dangerous world.

The memorandum restores the prohibition on the use of force, seeks a binding resolution at the UN to endorse a ‘final deal,’ and relies on multilateral institutions to implement it. But are the US and Iran really returning to compliance with international law?

Ending a dispute on minority rights would do more than progress Ukraine’s EU accession talks: it could strengthen the continent’s posture towards Moscow.

The grassroots movement received the 2025 Chatham House Prize for its humanitarian assistance to millions of Sudanese in the civil war. NGOs and international funders need to adapt to its innovative approach, writes ERR volunteer Alsanosi Adam.

A new survey of 1,332 Haitians reveals aspirations for better education and healthcare in addition to improvements in security, as well as opposition to amnesty for gang members, a desire for early elections, and suspicion of any potential political bargain that could enable gang leaders to enter government.

With no clear route to a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire, mounting external pressure on Kyiv could push it into an agreement that undermines the security of both Ukraine and Europe.

After the expiry of New START in early 2026, the prospects for formal arms control appear limited. But a costly new arms race can still be avoided.

Gang violence and state weakness continue to undermine security in Haiti, and the expiry of the transitional government’s mandate in February 2026 could bring further instability. This paper proposes a programme of reforms that could start to restore security and public services.

Russia sees Belarus as a strategic asset in its confrontations with Ukraine and NATO. For the sake of regional security, Western governments must encourage Minsk towards a more neutral stance.

By tightening the price cap on Russia’s oil exports and enforcing restrictions on shipments more robustly, Ukraine’s allies can increase the pressure on Putin to end the war.

While the Black Sea plays a pivotal role in Russia’s strategic thinking, the region also presents a critical opportunity for the West to contain Moscow’s global ambitions.

Russia’s military industry is struggling to modernize under the weight of sanctions and the demands of war. The West must aim to widen the growing technological gap with Moscow to blunt the latter’s threat.

Geopolitical fragmentation is making conflict harder to resolve. Policy interventions must adapt to a world in which the political allegiances of conflict actors are seldom absolute.

This paper explores how NATO can protect its space-based assets from the growing risk of cyberattacks through a framework that focuses on mitigation, adaptation and resilience.

How effective are the most common interventions, and are they fit for future conflicts?

Relations between North Korea and Russia have developed rapidly from a cash-for-weapons exchange to the deployment of North Korean troops. Their partnership now endangers regional and global security, and the US and its partners must take the threat seriously.

Russia seeks to rebuild and modernize its armed forces, both to make up for combat losses in Ukraine and to apply lessons from that theatre. The outcome of this project matters deeply for Western security.

This paper provides a detailed analysis of how and when states can respond to violations of international law through the use of countermeasures, with a particular focus on the cyber context.

Whichever party wins the general election, limited resources will prevent an expansive foreign agenda. ‘Realistic ambition’ should be the guiding principle, with a focus on adapting to risks around the US and China, improving relations with the EU, and strengthening the UK’s role in international governance and development.

Tanzania’s rising economic influence and its ambitions for major cross-border infrastructure projects demand a more proactive approach to foreign policy. The policy review currently under way is a chance for the country to reach its potential as a regional leader and reliable global partner.

This paper explores how the remote border district of Sinjar in Iraq became a transnational conflict hub that threatens wider security in the Middle East.

As diverse forms of cooperation between states, international organizations and non-state groups increasingly shape armed conflicts, the need for legal clarity on who qualifies as a party to conflict has never been greater.

Protracted and increasingly complex armed conflicts are impacting the ability of assistance organizations to work in accordance with humanitarian principles. Coherent and shared approaches to the principles and greater local participation are central to improving civilian outcomes.

International humanitarian efforts are disconnected from the people affected by armed conflict contexts. This paper looks at how the international humanitarian system should respond to rejections of humanitarian principles and improve systems of accountability.

Given the continuing existence of rival political institutions and a competitive and divided security sector in Libya, discussion of disarmament, demobilization and reintegration is often viewed as premature. But while there is no blueprint for DDR across Libya as a whole, there is already scope for planning according to local contexts.

Behavioural insights have already been used to enhance the choice architecture in several areas of public policy. This research paper explores their potential for improving decision-making in nuclear weapons policy.

Political settlements in Iraq, Lebanon and Libya have long relied on deals between elites to ensure ‘stability’, but the resulting power-sharing systems fuel corruption and have led to disastrous governance failings. To improve the daily lives of citizens under these settlements, international policymakers must focus on increasing the accountability of elites.

In this research paper, Juliet Skingsley investigates democratic states’ strategies for balancing utility and risk in offensive cyber operations.

This paper explores the regional dimensions of the two-year civil war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region and the potential for successful implementation of the November 2022 peace agreement.

By putting in place climate change adaptation measures, NATO has an opportunity to both strengthen operational resilience and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

This report makes the case for dramatically increased Western military assistance to Ukraine, and counsels against concessions to Russia.

How might a post-Putin Russia look to the outside world? Duncan Allan presents some potential outcomes based on a scenario of a Russian defeat in Ukraine.

More cohesive international engagement is needed to support stability in Ethiopia and Sudan and resolve damaging cross-border disputes that jeopardize security and development across the Horn of Africa.

Belarus – seen as a ‘vassal state’ of Russia – presents challenges for Western policymakers seeking to end repressions and support its pro-democracy movement.