United States of America

A detailed, reciprocal, and verifiable process is essential to ensure that any agreement holds.

Polls suggest Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives as American voters are dissatisfied with President Trump and his policies.

In this week’s episode of Independent Thinking, our experts discuss the Trump-Xi summit in Washington and the increasing competition between the two superpowers.

Denmark used its soft power to rally support and took the dispute out of the limelight – addressing underlying US interests instead of President Trump’s unacceptable public position.

The US and China both face serious domestic strains. As Trump and Xi meet this week to discuss trade, AI and Taiwan, neither side should mistake the other’s weaknesses for strategic decline.

The current focus on ‘global imbalances’ is too easily used by policymakers as a smokescreen for their own domestic failings.

Anthropic’s warning should be taken seriously – but not as cover for entrenching US labs or escalating rivalry with Beijing.

The administration’s efforts to undermine confidence in the US electoral system could spark a political crisis in November – with consequences for the 2028 presidential race and beyond, writes Bruce Stokes.

Sebastian Mallaby, the author of a recent book on Google DeepMind, tells Mike Higgins about the urgent need for regulation, why Europe will have to follow the United States’ lead and the way to talk to China about the technology’s safety issues. Listen also to the full podcast of their conversation.

In an extended edition of our weekly Independent Thinking podcast, we look back over a quarter of a century to examine the longer-term consequences of 9/11.

The Democrats are projected to make big gains in November’s midterm elections. But this will not necessarily constrain President Trump.

US–Canada trade war will test not only economic strength but also political will. On the latter, Canada may have an advantage.

A US crisis is very likely to be associated with a capital outflow, rather than a capital inflow, with the result that the dollar could weaken substantially against other currencies.

In this week’s episode of Independent Thinking, our experts explore the US-China race for AI leadership and the likelihood of an AI crash

The Trump administration has pushed through another round of tariffs. While they are being challenged in the courts, unpredictable and costly US trade policy is here to stay.

Riyadh’s argument to Washington is that a close partnership should not be contingent on membership of the Abraham Accords, when it is playing a growing role in regional security.

Washington and Beijing spent the week arguing about whose models we should use. But the week’s most important news was about what a model did.

Iran has survived war with the US by adapting its doctrine. The US must also change its thinking.

In this week’s episode of Independent Thinking, our experts discuss how the expansion of presidential power could reshape American democracy.

The dramatic rise in private credit and its links points to a need for regulators to get ahead of the curve on monitoring systemic risk and protecting retail investors.

International law does not permit any country to appoint itself ‘guardian’ of other states’ rights and demand payment. The only realistic solution to the situation in the Strait is a return to negotiations.

The US–Mexico–Canada agreement now faces a decade of annual reviews. But the fact that the treaty will remain in place during negotiations is the most important outcome.

In this episode of Independent Thinking, Bronwen Maddox is joined by Laurel Rapp and Ambassador Tim Davis to discuss America’s international role and its domestic divisions as it approaches the 250th anniversary of its founding.

The Trump administration’s approach to controlling US companies’ powerful AI capabilities is volatile. It undercuts global safety and governance at a pivotal time.

The most urgent fault line in US politics is between those who believe in the system of government and those who do not. It is, in fact, the foundational US fault line being relitigated for modern times.

Europe cannot affect the course of America’s latest reinvention, as it did 250 years ago. But it can adapt to a more unhappy relationship.

Clearing the busy international waterway of mines is a complex challenge that will take time and international coordination. But it could help to build trust between the US and Iran during negotiations.

Both sides want to buy time. But other factors like midterm elections, Israel, and deep mistrust may intervene. 

The memorandum restores the prohibition on the use of force, seeks a binding resolution at the UN to endorse a ‘final deal,’ and relies on multilateral institutions to implement it. But are the US and Iran really returning to compliance with international law?

France achieved as much as could have been expected at its G7 Summit, but this was well short of what the world needs. A new approach is needed.

This report proposes the creation of a permanent alliance of market-oriented economies – a ‘third pole’ in the global economy – to preserve and improve the core principles and rules underpinning economic openness, absence of coercion and pursuit of mutual benefit.

With the new US national security strategy demanding greater burden-sharing by Japan and South Korea, officials and policymakers in all three countries must focus on delivering tangible benefits if they are to sustain their trilateral partnership.

As the Trump administration turns away from the US-led post-war international order, how are other states envisioning ‘international order’ and what are their plans for adapting to new realities?

More cohesive international engagement is needed to support stability in Ethiopia and Sudan and resolve damaging cross-border disputes that jeopardize security and development across the Horn of Africa.

With consistent and long-term support from the US, the Abraham Accords could have a transformative impact on Middle East economic cooperation and regional security.

Global trade continues to face multiple challenges as the risks of deepening tensions between the US and China, along with those of an escalation of Russia’s war on Ukraine, weigh on economies.

This paper assesses plans for investment in a sustainable economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic, and examines how such efforts could transform international development cooperation.

The Trade and Technology Council (TTC) has become the main platform for US–EU trade and tech cooperation. But the US and the EU must turn ambitions into tangible outcomes if the TTC is to tackle significant global issues.

Europe and the US recognize that their policies and strategies on the Indo-Pacific need to be more coherent. Existing structures such as the G7 and the Quad could become key forums for enhanced cooperation.

In 2021 G7 leaders pledged to build back a better world. They now need to redouble their efforts to make sure that this ambition is fulfilled.

Human processes and judgments can affect decisions in the nuclear chain of command. Complexity science offers policymakers pathways to reduce escalatory risk.

The use of forest biomass for energy is growing rapidly, but existing EU and UK policies ignore its contribution to increased carbon emissions.

This paper offers a public policy ‘toolkit’ for governments in the US and Europe to support firms in securing resilient and sustainable supply chains

Important political shifts in 2021 could bring greater clarity on Germany’s changing China policy, no matter who succeeds Angela Merkel as chancellor, writes Noah Barkin.

This paper examines current and potential areas of climate change cooperation between the US, the EU and China.

China’s expansion into the Indo-Pacific is meeting growing resistance from a range of countries that are looking to further their own interests in the region.

Quantum technologies represent significant scientific progress, however, security concerns continue to hinder deeper international cooperation.

The authors of this paper consider the most pressing foreign policy challenges for the next US president, and examine how the outcome of the 2020 election will affect these.

A modernized and fully functioning WTO is more essential than ever. This paper makes the case for transatlantic cooperation as a necessary condition for reform.

As internet governance issues emerge in the wake of innovations such as the Internet of Things and advanced artificial intelligence, there is an urgent need for the EU and US to establish a common, positive multi-stakeholder vision for regulating and governing the internet.

This paper examines the risks of greater strategic competition as well as potential solutions for mitigating the impacts of the US–China economic confrontation.

This briefing argues that China’s rise has worrying implications for the liberal order and explores how this will affect the transatlantic relationship.

Many middle powers have been warning of the dangers inherent in the decline of the liberal international order. The time has come for these countries to translate their warnings into concerted action.

This paper recommends a framework for strengthening US–EU trade relations and achieving successful trade talks in the current era of protectionism. 

Despite significant financial expenditure and thousands of lives lost, a fundamental shift in policy remains unimaginable at present.

In the first of a new annual series, Chatham House experts examine how aspects of the established order in global affairs are shifting.

If a new trade policy framework can be developed, Trump’s presidency could offer a chance to move the debate forward and actually strengthen global trade.

Briefing Paper